Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 282310

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Mar 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the border 
of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward
to 01N27W. The ITCZ continues from 01N27W to the coast of Brazil
near 02S45W. Most of the convective activity is S of the Equator.


A cold front has entered the NW corner of the basin stretching 
from SE Louisiana to near Brownsville, TX. A band of showers and
thunderstorms is associated with the front. Similar convective
activity is ahead of the front currently affecting the NE Gulf, 
the Florida Panhandle and northern Florida. Fresh to strong 
northerly winds are behind the boundary, where seas are 5 to 7 
ft. A surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front and runs from
26N93W to the central Bay of Campeche. The eastern part of the 
Gulf region is under the influence of a ridge. Mainly light to 
gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail E of the front, with 
the exception of 1 to 3 ft E of 85W, including the offshore 
waters of Florida and the Straits of Florida. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move SE and
extend from near Tampa Bay to the western Bay of Campeche Wed, 
then weaken and dissipate over the far SE waters Thu. Fresh to 
strong NE to E winds are expected in the northwestern Gulf behind
the front through early Wed. High pressure will build over the 
SE United States by the end of the week, and will support moderate
to fresh E to SE winds across the basin, with fresh to locally 
strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds will weaken slightly
for the start of the weekend. 


The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic
and low pressure over Colombia supports strong to near-gale force
winds over the south-central Caribbean where latest scatterometer
data indicate trade winds of 25 to 30 kt. Fresh to strong winds, 
in the 20 to 25 kt range, are noted over the remainder of the 
central Caribbean, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh
winds dominate the eastern Caribbean while gentle to moderate 
winds are observed elsewhere, including the Windward Passage.
Seas are 8 to 10 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 6 to 8 ft
across the remainder of the central Caribbean, and in the Gulf of
Honduras, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 1 to 3 ft in the lee 
of Cuba. Low-topped trade wind showers are noted across the basin
moving westward in the trade wind flow. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N 
of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to 
strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean through the week. 
Winds N of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night Thu night
into Sun night. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the 
Gulf of Honduras into Wed morning. Winds will pulse to fresh to 
strong speeds across the approach to the Windward Passage Fri 
through Sat. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere
across the Caribbean. Seas will build to around 8 ft E of the
Lesser Antilles this weekend with fresh trades blowing around 
the southern periphery of the Atlantic high pressure.


High pressure dominates the Atlantic forecast waters with the
main center of 1021 mb located near 26N60W. Light and variable 
winds are in the vicinity of the high center while moderate to 
fresh winds are observed around the southern periphery of this 
system, mainly between Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos
Islands. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the offshore waters of east
Florida and near the NW and central Bahamas. Seas of 4 to 6 ft 
are noted over the SE Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and 
N of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage. 
Higher seas, in the 7 to 10 ft range are seen E of 60W due to 
long period N swell. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 9 
ft are affecting the waters E of the Lesser Antilles based on 
scatterometer and altimeter data. Convection is on increase just 
E of NE Florida due to an approaching cold front.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front is forecast to move off 
the SE United States coast this evening, then slowly track 
southeastward through Fri when it will reach to along 22N/23N. 
Fresh to strong winds and higher seas are forecast N of 29N in 
the vicinity of the front Wed, with moderate to fresh winds 
elsewhere in the vicinity of the front. High pressure building in
the wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient, 
generating fresh to strong NE to ENE winds across the Bahamas 
starting Thu night. NE swell will build seas to around 8 ft east 
of the Bahamas by the end of the week. 


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 28-Mar-2023 23:10:56 UTC