519 
AXNT20 KNHC 261757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Apr 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Senegal and Guinea Bissau, then runs southwestward to 05N18W. An 
ITCZ continues westward from 05N18W through 02N30W to 03N41W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the trough from 
the Equator to 04N between 10W and 17W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is present near the ITCZ from 01N to
06N between 20W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaches southwestward from northern Florida to
near Tampico, Mexico. Convergent southerly winds are triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across waters near
Corpus Christi, Texas and the Mexican border. Fresh to strong SE
winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft are present at the northwestern Gulf.
Moderate to fresh with locally strong SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
are noted at the west-central and southwestern Gulf, including the
Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are
found at the northeastern Gulf. Moderate with locally fresh SE
winds and 4 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf,
including the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to tighten 
and cause fresh to strong SE winds to spread over the entire Gulf 
through Sun night. Seas are expected to peak at 12 ft in the 
northwestern Gulf Sat night and Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse 
between fresh and strong near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening 
through early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 mb low is centered just off northwest Colombia near 10N76W.
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are occurring across
the waters off eastern Panama and northwestern Colombia. A surface
trough runs northeastward from this low to south of Haiti. The
southern end of another surface trough is over eastern Hispaniola.
Aided by divergent flow aloft, scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are evident near and up to 115 nm northwest of the 
trough axis, and near Hispaniola. Some of these thunderstorms can
produce heavy downpours and gusty winds. Fresh ENE winds and seas
at 5 to 6 ft are found at the northwestern basin, including the 
Yucatan Channel and near the Cayman Islands. Gentle to moderate E 
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist at the northeastern basin. Moderate
to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere
in the Caribbean Basin, including the Gulf of Honduras and 
Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the ridge of high pressure north of the area is
going to strengthen further starting tonight. This will cause 
fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba, 
Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola from Sat night 
through early next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal trough extends northeastward from eastern Hispaniola to
31N61W. Interaction with a pronounced deep-layer mid-latitude 
trough in the vicinity is generating scattered moderate convection
from 20N to 25N between 56W and 70W, and north of 25N between 54W
and 55W. A weak but distinct 1014 mb low is in the central 
Atlantic near 19N40W. Further northeast, a surface trough near 
22N30W is producing scattered moderate convection from 20N to 29N 
between 24W and 31W. Convergent trade winds are generating 
scattered moderate convection from 01N to 04N between 41W and 50W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional 
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Tighter gradient between a surface trough over the southeast
Bahamas and a ridge near 30N74W is inducing fresh NE winds and 5
to 6 ft seas from 20N to 25N between 68W and the Bahamas.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft
dominate the western Atlantic north of 20N between 50W and the
Florida-Georgia coast. At the central and eastern Atlantic, a 
board ridge originating from the Azores High is supporting 
moderate with locally fresh NNE to ENE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas 
north of 20N between the Africa coast and 50W, including the 
Canary Islands. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 
the central Africa coast and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to 
moderate with locally fresh N to ENE trade winds and seas of 4 to 
6 ft exist. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal westerly 
winds with 4 to 5 ft seas in moderate mixed swells prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front currently northeast of 
Florida will merge with the aforementioned frontal trough tonight.
Afterward, the front will reach from near 31N58W to eastern Cuba 
by Sat morning, and from near 25N55W to Hispaniola by Sun morning.
The front is expected to stall and weaken into a trough in the 
central Atlantic near 24N47W late Sun through Mon night. N swell 
behind this front will cause seas to build near 12 ft north of 28N
between 55W and 65W by Sun. Strengthening high pressure in the 
wake of the front will result in fresh to strong N to NE winds 
behind the front from late Fri through Sun. By late Sun, fresh 
winds will prevail south of 29N and west of 60W, while fresh to 
strong W to NW winds along with building seas are expected north 
of 27N between 38W and 45W. Rather tranquil conditions are 
expected Tue as high pressure settles north of the Bahamas near 
30N73W, but the induced gradient will induce fresh to strong NE to
E winds near the southeast Bahamas, and Turk and Caicos Islands.

$$

Chan