Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 241725

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC. 



A combination of strong surface high pressure ridging southward
along the U.S. east coast and relatively strong low pressure over
northern South America supports winds to gale force near the 
coast of Colombia. The gale force winds will not be continuous 
but are expected to recur each night during the evening and 
overnight hours through the end of next week while this surface 
weather pattern persists. The next gale is forecast for 25/0000
UTC from 11N to 12N betwen 74W and 76W, with seas 9 to 12 ft. For
more details please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 
KNHC. This information can also be found at the following website:

...GALE WARNING for the METEO-FRANCE areas...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is 
forecast to develop by 00Z Sun for the following areas:
AGADIR and TARFAYA. This is expected to be a relatively prolonged
event and gale conditions could persist in these areas until 00Z 


The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the African coast
near 07N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 02N24W 
to 01N31W to the northeast coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 2N-6N between 04W-22W, and from 3S-4N 
between 40W-51W. 



Fair weather prevails across the entire Gulf of Mexico with a 1024
mb surface high pressure centered off the Atlantic coast of N 
Florida near 29N80W. Abundant dry air is in the mid-and upper- 
levels of the atmosphere enhancing the dry weather pattern. 
Moderate to fresh surface winds are out of the northeast to east 
over the eastern and central Gulf and east to southeast over the 
western Gulf. Sea heights are highest, near 7 ft, in the NW Gulf 
due to the longer fetch there. The area of surface high pressure 
is expected to gradually shift ESE during the next several days, 
causing winds to veer from the south over much of the region. This
flow will cause sea heights to increase a little over the 
northwestern waters. Surface troughing is expected to develop over
the Yucatan Peninsula each day, then migrate W into the Bay of 
Campeche during the evening and nighttime hours. Otherwise, fair 
weather is expected to continue through the weekend as dry air 
remains in place.


Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 
61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises
mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around 
Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the web page, www.nadma.gd, for 
additional information.

Relatively quiet conditions exist across the Caribbean Sea as 
mid-to upper-level ridging maintains a relatively dry and 
subsident weather pattern over the basin. Trade winds are 
strongest over the south-central waters N of the coast of 
Colombia. Winds are expected to reach gale force during the 
evening and overnight hours through Thu night and Fri morning. See
the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details. Otherwise, 
ridging extending southward from along the east coast of the 
united States will maintain moderate to fresh NE to E winds over 
the Caribbean basin through the first half of next week.


A slow moving cold front enters the discussion area near 32N54W 
and continues southwestward to 20N65W. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are observed along and up to 120 nm SE of 
the front N of 25N. West of the front, surface high pressure 
dominates the area with NW to NE flow and cooler air covering the 
western Atlantic. Expansive surface high pressure dominates the 
central and eastern Atlantic Ocean. A strong 1034 mb high is 
centered over the E Atlantic near 36N33W with a ridge extending 
WSW to NE of the Leeward Islands near 22N57W. This high is 
producing fresh trade-wind flow across a large portion of the 
tropical and subtropical eastern Atlantic waters, except for the 
waters W of 55W, where moderate trades are noted. An upper-level 
low is centered near 25N35W. 

The front over the central-western Atlantic is expected to slowly
shift eastward and weaken while another boundary enters the far
northwestern waters Sun evening.

For additional information please visit 


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Page last modified: Saturday, 24-Mar-2018 17:25:41 UTC