646 
AXNT20 KNHC 211712
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue May 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1708 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep layered trough will
dig southward across the western Caribbean Sea today through Wed 
then lift out to the northeast through Fri. This feature is 
expected to destabilize the atmosphere, and support very active 
convection across the south-central Caribbean beginning today,
with strong afternoon convection across the Greater Antilles. 
Convection is then expected to develop north and northeastward 
across the central Caribbean and Greater Antilles, from Jamaica 
and eastern Cuba, to western Puerto Rico, Wed through Fri. Latest 
computer model guidance currently suggests that the highest 
rainfall accumulations with this event may occur across 
Hispaniola. Residents in these locations should remain alert for 
significant rainfall and potential flash flooding. Please refer 
to your local weather office for more specific information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough curves southwestward from the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N16W to 07.5N19W to 06.5N24W. An ITCZ continues 
westward from 06.5N24W to 06.5N34W to 02N48.5W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 08.5N
east of 33W. 

Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring along the
eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough, and extends to  
the coasts of Panama and northern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Isolated moderated convection is depicted over the SE Gulf
including the Straits of Florida in association to a surface 
trough across the area. Elsewhere, weak high pressure extends 
from the eastern U.S. into the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E
to SE winds prevail across the Gulf, with slight seas. Hazy 
conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across 
most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. 

For the forecast, high pressure will remain NE of the basin 
through the end of the week to produce moderate to locally fresh E
to SE winds across most of the basin, becoming SE to S Fri and 
Sat. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more
information about Significan Rainfall Event in the Caribbean. 

A deep layered upper trough along 75W extends from the western 
Atlantic to western Cuba, and is digging southward across the NW 
Caribbean. This energetic feature has initiated isolated to scattered
moderate convection across the waters between western Jamaica and
western Cuba, and has enhanced convection across the SW Caribbean
described above. Weak high pressure ridge prevails just N of the area,
to the E of 74W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and 
lower pressure over northern South America is supporting fresh to
strong trade winds across the south-central. Seas in this area are
6 to 9 ft. East of 77 W easterly winds are moderate to locally 
fresh with seas 4 to 7 ft. Otherwise, gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft 
seas exist across the southwestern basin and north of the Cayman 
Islands. 

Latest observations along with earlier satellite imagery indicate
haze and smoke produced by agricultural fires in Central America 
are causing reduced visibilities, down to 4 to 6 nm across the 
northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, a deep layer trough will dig southward across 
the western Caribbean through Wed, then lift out to the NE through
Fri. This feature will support very active weather across the 
central portions of the basin this afternoon, and will gradually 
shift NE through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will develop 
in the central Caribbean this afternoon, ahead of the active 
weather, and shift northeastward through Thu while diminishing to 
mostly fresh speeds. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central 
America continues across the Gulf of Honduras, but continue to 
thin out. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends across the northern waters, from 30N67W 
to 1011 mb low pressure near 28N76W then continues across the 
Florida Straits. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is depicted from 22N to 26N between 65.5W and 78.5W, supported by
a deep layered upper trough. Moderate NE winds prevail across the
waters NW of the trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across this area.

To the east, 1025 mb high pressure is centered over the eastern 
Atlantic near 32.5N24W, and extends a ridge W-SW to near 24N64W. 
Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail within the ridge 
between 20N and 30W. Seas are 2 to 4 ft within the ridge. South of
20N, mainly moderate NE to E trade winds prevail, where seas are 
4 to 7 ft, with a few small areas to 8 ft possible.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned trough will weaken 
by Wed morning. A trough will develop just southeast of the 
weakening trough and extend into the central Bahamas on Wed, then
drift eastward through Thu night. Moderate winds and seas will 
prevail in the western Atlantic with the trough through midweek. 
Weak low pressure is expected to develop just N of Hispaniola Thu 
night and shift N-NE through Sat, accompanied by moderate to fresh
winds and active weather. 

$$
KRV