Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 170600

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Thu Jan 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0545 UTC.



Scatterometer winds over the southwestern Caribbean showed E to 
SE tradewinds up to 30 kt near the Colombia coastline. The surface
ridge will build slightly north of the Caribbean during the next 
few days. This will enhance the tradewinds up to minimal gale near
the Colombia coastline Thursday evening, Friday evening, and 
possibly Saturday evening. Conditions should subside slightly on 
Sunday. Please read the High Seas Forecast product under the 
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of West Africa near 
11N15W and extends to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point 
to 01N34W to the coast of South America near 00N49W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 02N-08N between 29W-48W. 


A high pressure ridge is centered over the southeastern U.S.
forcing 10-20 kt winds over the Gulf that shifts anticyclonically  
from NE over the eastern Gulf to SE over the western. No 
significant deep convection is currently present over the Gulf. 
Scattered showers are occurring within 120 nm of the northeastern 
Mexico coast and the lower Texas coast. 

High pressure will dominate the basin through end of the work 
week. Fresh to strong south return flow will set up across the 
western Gulf Fri night and Sat ahead of a strong cold front 
expected to reach the NW Gulf by Sat evening. A large area of 
gale-force winds is possible behind the front Sat night through 
Sun night. Strongest winds will be near the Veracruz coast Sat 


Easterly 10-20 kt tradewinds cover the Caribbean with no organized
deep convection present. Isolated showers are occurring near the 
Leeward Islands including Puerto Rico, Jamaica, the northwestern 
Caribbean, and Guatemala. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the
Caribbean with axis along 83W. Upper level moisture is over Cuba 
and the Yucatan Peninsula. Strong subsidence is over the remainder
of the Caribbean. 

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the south-central 
Caribbean through Sun night. Highest winds will reach gale force 
along the coast of Colombia each night starting Thu night through 
Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail 
elsewhere. A strong cold front will cross the NW Caribbean Sun 
through Mon. The front will reach the Yucatan Channel on Sun 
morning, then extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by 
Sun night. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the


The tail end of a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N53W 
to 26N66W. A dissipating stationary front is further E from 29N55W
to 26N61W to 23N69W. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N- 
31N between 53W-69W. Isolated strong convection is between the two
boundaries from 27N-26N between 60W-63W. A 1030 mb high is 
centered near the Azores at 39N24W with high pressure ridging over
the E Atlantic. 

The cold front will merge with the stationary front overnight and
introduce a reinforcing surge of cool air that freshens the winds
E of the northern Bahamas through Thu. Southerly winds will 
strengthen this weekend E of Florida ahead of a strong cold front 
expected to push off the Florida peninsula by Sun afternoon. The 
front will extend from 31N76W to 23N80W Sun night and from 31N66W 
to 22N78W on Mon. Gale force winds are possible north of 29N on 
either side of the front Sun and Mon. 

For additional information please visit 


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Page last modified: Thursday, 17-Jan-2019 06:00:35 UTC