000
AXNT20 KNHC 252316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun May 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 61W from 15N southward, moving westward
at 10-15 kt. The wave is helping to induce scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the Windward Islands. Satellite 
scatterometer data indicate the wind shift associated with the
wave, with fresh to strong SE winds on the east side of the wave
axis to 57W. The tropical wave will move across the eastern
Caribbean on Sun, and the associated moisture could reach Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands late Sun into Mon increasing the
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, then continues SW to near 07N16W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N16W to 03N35W to the coast of French Guiana near
05N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted 
from 03N to 07N between 23W and 30W, and from 05N to 08N between
50W and 55W. Similar convective activity is over parts of French
Guiana. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is moving
across Liberia and Sierra Leone. This convective activity may be
associated with the next tropical wave.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing moderate to locally 
fresh SE winds over the western half of the Gulf with seas of 3 
to 5 ft, and gentle to moderate SE winds over the eastern half of
it with seas of 1 to 3 ft. The smoke graphic from NESDI indicates
medium concentration of smoke, resulting in hazy conditions 
across the western Gulf, due to agricultural fires over southern 
Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition, visible satellite 
imagery also confirmed the presence of the smoke extending 
northward from the Bay of Campeche across the western Gulf, 
including also the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains. 

For the forecast, a relatively weak high pressure ridge will 
continue to extend from the western Atlantic across the northern 
Gulf into the upcoming week. This will maintain a weak pressure 
pattern over the basin. Mostly moderate to fresh southeast to 
south winds will exist W of 87W through early Mon while light to 
gentle southeast to south winds are expected E of 87W. The winds
W of 87W will shift to W of 90W afterwards while winds east of 
87W generally become light and variable, except S of 26N where 
gentle northeast winds are forecast. Seas will be slight to 
moderate during the period. A cold front is expected to move 
across the NE Gulf Tue through Wed, followed by gentle to 
moderate west to northwest winds. Fresh to strong winds will 
pulse near the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula during the 
late afternoons and at night through the period. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over parts
of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Similar convective activity is 
over the SW Caribbean, mainly S of 12N and E of 81W. A diffluent 
pattern aloft supports this convective activity. The most recent
satellite scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh E to SE 
winds in the Gulf of Honduras, where dense smoke continues to 
limit visibilities as agricultural burning continues in the 
region. Elsewhere, light to gentle trades are noted across the 
basin, with the exception of moderate winds in the vicinity of
the ABC Islands and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are generally
in the 3 to 5 ft across the basin. 

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure over the western
Atlantic will maintain moderate trade winds across the basin, 
except for pulsing fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras 
at night through Tue night. Moderate to fresh trade winds are 
forecast to develop over the central Caribbean Mon, increasing to
fresh to strong speeds late Mon night through late Tue night, 
then shifting to between 75W and 80W for the rest of the forecast
period. A tropical wave presently crossing the Windward Islands 
will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the
eastern Caribbean waters tonight through Mon. Strong gusty winds
and rough seas are likely with this activity. The wave may lose 
definition as moves across the central Caribbean during mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The deep-layered trough persists E of Florida. It crosses the
central Bahamas and eastern Cuba extending southward across the
central Caribbean. A band of multilayer clouds with embedded
showers and thunderstorms remains ahead of the trough, and 
extends across the Atlantic from Hispaniola, where convection
has flared-up again late this afternoon, to near 31N60W. At the 
surface, a 1012 mb low pressure is analyzed near 28N64W, along a 
surface trough extending from 31N60W to the low center to near 
20N69W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic 
forecast waters. A cold front is over the Madeira Islands. Based 
on satellite derived wind data, mainly gentle to moderate winds 
are noted N of 20N while moderate to fresh trades are S of 20N. 
Mainly fresh northerly winds are seen from 16N to 24N E of 22W to
the coast of W Africa. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft in open 
waters. In the far W Atlantic near the Bahamas, Florida, Cuba, 
and the Straits of Florida, seas are 2 to 4 ft with light and 
variable winds.

For the forecast W of 55W, the above mentioned low pressure will
continue to move generally ENE through Sun evening as it weakens
further with the trailing trough. Otherwise, relatively weak 
high pressure will remain over the region for the next few days. 
The associated gradient will support moderate winds and seas 
north of the Bahamas and off northeastern Florida by Mon night as
the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a weakening cold 
front that is expected to move across the waters north of the 
Bahamas Tue through Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may 
accompany the front.

$$
GR