063 AXNT20 KNHC 101809 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Jul 10 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed near 22W from 06N-16N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N-13N between the coast of Africa and 33W. A tropical wave is analyzed near 37W, from 06N-18N, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 08N-11N between 36W and 43W. A tropical wave is analyzed near 70W from 20N to northern Venezuela, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are over Hispaniola adjacent waters. A tropical wave is analyzed near 86W from the Gulf of Honduras southward into the E Pacific near 08N86W, and is moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the offshore waters of Honduras and Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, then continues to 12N29W to 10N39W. The ITCZ extends from 10N39W to 10N53W to 10N62W. See the tropical wave section for information about convection. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Surface ridging across the SW N Atlantic waters extends across Florida into the Gulf where it is anchored by a 1022 mb high near 26N86W. With high pressure over E Mexico, there is a weak pressure gradient across the basin, which is supporting light to gentle variable winds basin-wide along with slight seas. Otherwise, abundant moisture being advected from the Caribbean by SE flow and upper level wind dynamic, are supporting scattered to isolated showers over the far W Gulf W of 94W, the SE Gulf S of 25N and the coastal waters of the NE Gulf. For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the basin through the forecast period. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on convection associated with the tropical waves moving through the basin. Aside from the convection associated with tropical waves, heavy showers and tstms are across the offshore waters of Panama and Costa Rica associated with the E Pacific extension of the monsoon trough. A strong Bermuda High and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean continue to generate a tight pressure gradient that is resulting in fresh to strong E winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean and rough seas to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern Caribbean, while moderate or lighter winds are elsewhere with slight seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in Colombia will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh east winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A surface trough extends from a 1018 mb low near 30N75W SW to Andros Islands, and is generating scattered heavy showers across the Florida Straits and The Great Bahama Bank as well as N of 28N between 69W and 79W. Elsewhere, the entire subtropical waters are under the influence of the Bermuda-Azores High, which is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds between 20W and 70W, and fresh to strong E to SE winds N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are ahead of the trough N of 26N between 70W and 78W while fresh to strong NE winds prevail between the NW coast of Africa and the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging extending southwestward from near 31N60W to South Florida will change little through tonight then shift northward to central Florida Fri through Sun night, and back south to South Florida early next week. The related pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh to strong east to southeast winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Sat and fresh winds Sun and moderate to fresh winds early next week. Otherwise, the surface trough extending from 30N73W to the central Bahamas will gradually move west-northwestward through Fri. $$ Ramos
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Page last modified: Thursday, 10-Jul-2025 22:50:07 UTC