000
AXNT20 KNHC 141019
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue May 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A line of strong thunderstorms are
moving across the northern Gulf, N of 25N between 83W and 96W.
These storms are producing strong winds frequent gusts to gale 
force, in addition to frequent lightning and rough seas. The gale
warning will be in effect through 14/1500 UTC. Strong winds can be
expected across the northern Gulf through the rest of the day.
Conditions will improve by tonight. However, showers and 
thunderstorms are expected to continue through Wed across the 
eastern Gulf. 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 05N20W. 
The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 03N35W to 05N51W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 
16N and east of 31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
the Gale Warning in effect this morning. 

A cold and warm fronts over the north-western and north-central 
Gulf are producing strong thunderstorms N of 25N and east of 96W
to the Florida Big Bend. The fast-moving squalls are producing 
gusts to gale- force, frequent lightning strikes and heavy 
downpours. Otherwise, weak high pressure dominates the rest of 
the basin, maintaining fairly dry weather conditions. Fresh to 
strong SE winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present off northern 
Yucatan, especially south of 27N and between 85W and 90W. 
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail 
elsewhere.

Agricultural fires in SE Mexico and Central America, along with
southerly flow over the Gulf of Mexico, result in hazy skies
across the western portion of the basin, especially in the Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will linger across the
northern Gulf over the next few days. This will cause heavy rain 
and thunderstorms over the northern basin through Wed. Meanwhile, 
moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, pulsing to 
strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and Yucatan Channel. Winds may 
weaken somewhat during the upcoming weekend as the gradient 
relaxes. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Mexico 
continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1022 mb high pressure system 
near 35N70W and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain 
strong to near-gale easterly trade winds in the south-central 
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. 
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present in
the north- central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Scattered thunderstorms
are noted along the eastern Pacific monsoon trough along the coast
of Panama. 

Agricultural fires in SE Mexico and Central America, along with
southerly flow over the Gulf of Mexico, result in hazy skies
across the northwestern Caribbean, particularly in the Gulf of
Honduras.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will 
support strong to near gale E to SE winds near the Gulf of 
Honduras and fresh to strong winds in the south-central basin 
through Sat. Moderate to rough seas are expected with the 
increasing winds. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere 
through most of the week. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural 
fires in Central America continues across some areas of the 
northwestern Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed entering the basin near 31N54W and 
continues southwestward to 24N61W, with the tail end of the
boundary weakening to 22N68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are evident on satellite imagery ahead of the frontal boundary, N
of 25N between 49W and 53W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are
noted ahead of the front with the convection. 

Meanwhile, tightening pressure gradient sustains fresh to strong 
southerly winds off the NE Florida coast. Moderate to fresh winds
are noted across the rest of the offshore waters W of 70W. The 
rest of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical 
ridge over the NE Atlantic. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the central and western 
Atlantic. 

Farther east, fresh to strong northerly winds and 7-10 ft seas 
are noted north of 15N and east of 20W. In the rest of the 
eastern Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front is forecast 
to progress eastward while weakening, exiting the offshore waters 
tonight. High pressure will build in its wake. Fresh to strong 
southerly winds and building seas are noted off the NE Florida 
coast due to an approaching cold front. As the front emerges off 
the Florida coast Thu, the fresh to strong winds and moderate to 
rough seas will follow as it progresses eastward. The front will 
reach from near 31N75W to 29N81W by early Thu, then weaken and 
stall from 31N69W to near the northern Bahamas by early Fri. 
Conditions around the front should improve by late Fri into the 
upcoming weekend.

$$
AReinhart