000
AXNT20 KNHC 050440
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun May 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0435 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 06N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N19W to 02N35W and to 03N51W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed south of 06N and between 
22W and 41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level trough over the central United States supports strong
thunderstorms over Texas and some of the storm activity is
affecting the NW Gulf. Elsewhere, weak high pressure dominates.
The pressure gradient between the 1030 mb ridge off Maine and
lower pressures in Texas and Mexico sustain moderate to fresh
easterly winds over much of the basin, along with seas of 3-6 ft.
However, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail north of a
line from SW Florida to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.

Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident 
in the SW and west-central Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak high pressure extends across the eastern
Gulf. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure 
in the western Gulf will support moderate to fresh winds over most
of the basin through late next week. Fresh to locally strong 
winds will pulse at night through late next week off the northern 
and western Yucatan Peninsula. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft associated with a sharp upper level trough north
of the islands and abundant tropical moisture result in scattered
showers across the north-central and eastern Caribbean Sea. The
atmospheric conditions will remain conducive for further development
of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over most of the 
eastern Caribbean going into the upcoming week. Some of this 
activity may be accompanied by gusty winds and frequent lightning.
Additional deep atmospheric moisture in the form of cloudiness is
observed on satellite imagery being pulled north and 
northeastward over the eastern Caribbean due to strong southwest 
winds aloft that are out ahead of the aforementioned upper-level 
trough. Locally heavy rainfall continues to bring a threat of 
flooding to Puerto Rico through Sun. See local weather advisories 
for more information. Mariners should also be aware of the 
potential for strong wind gusts and locally rough seas in the area
of showers and thunderstorms. Drier weather conditions are found 
in the rest of the Caribbean. 

Strong ridge off Maine is forcing fresh to locally strong NE 
winds in the Windward Passage according to a recent scatterometer 
satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Moderate to 
locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 2-5 ft are present in 
the lee of Cuba, Gulf of Honduras and SE Caribbean waters. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds will pulse 
nightly in the Windward Passage into the middle of next week. A 
surface trough that extends from the western Atlantic to the 
Leeward Islands continues to support numerous thunderstorms E of 
71W..

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1014 mb low pressure system near
29N60W to 27N67W and to 31N74W. No deep convection is noted near
this boundary. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured
moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the cold front. Seas in
these waters are 3-6 ft. The remainder of the western Atlantic,
west of 55W, is under the influence of a 1030 mb high pressure
system centered off Maine. Moderate to locally strong easterly 
winds are evident on satellite-derived wind data south of 27N and
west of 65W, with the strongest winds at the entrance of the
Windward Passage. Seas in the area described are 4-6 ft.

Farther east, a cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near
31N47W and continues southwestward to 28N52W. A surface through
extends from 30N45W to the Leeward Islands. Scattered showers are
evident on satellite imagery within 120 nm on both sides of the
trough. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are noted ahead of the 
front to 38W and north of 29N, along with seas of 4-7 ft. The rest
of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a 1022 mb 
ridge near 30N24W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds 
are confined to an area south of 15N and west of 30W. Seas in 
these waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and
seas of 5-7 ft are occurring north of 13N and east of 25W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extends from 
28N48W to the Virgin Islands. The trough will shift eastward 
through Sunday night as a cold front drops southward over the 
eastern and central waters. The front will shift east of the area 
early next week, bringing rough seas behind it, N of 20N and E of 
59W, through the middle of next week.

$$
Delgado