000
AXNT20 KNHC 151604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: Pulsing gale-force winds are
forecast in the Agadir area of the Meteo-France high seas 
forecast from 15/12 UTC to 16/00 UTC. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are 
possible with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by Meteo-France at https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- 
Bissau near 13N17W to 07N25W. The ITCZ continues from 07N25W to 
05N30W to 06N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N 
southward between 22W and 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Mexico Beach, Florida, southwestward to
Tampico, Mexico. Ahead of the front, a pre-frontal trough extends
from 28N82W to 27N87W. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
occurring along the prefrontal trough east of the front to the 
Florida coast north of 26N. Moderate to fresh return flow is east 
of the front, with gentle to moderate NE winds west of the front. 
Seas are slight to moderate across the entire basin.

For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms from the 
aforementioned cold front are expected across the northeast Gulf 
today in association with the pre-frontal trough just north of 
Tampa Bay. The front will lift as a warm front later today and 
linger across the northern Gulf over the next few days. This will 
shift the focus of heavy rain and thunderstorms to the northern 
Gulf on Thu and Fri. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow will
dominate the basin, pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan 
Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. Winds will slightly weaken 
during the weekend as the gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, haze due to
agricultural fires in Mexico continues across most of the western
Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered southwest of Bermuda is supporting fresh 
to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras and fresh E winds 
in the south-central and portions of the southwest basin. Moderate
to rough seas are in these waters. Moderate to fresh E to SE 
winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere across the basin. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the southwest Caribbean 
south of 14N near the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will 
persist through Sun. Winds in the south-central basin will improve
tonight into Thu, but strong winds will return by the weekend. 
Moderate to rough seas are expected with these winds. Gentle to 
moderate winds are expected elsewhere through the weekend. 
Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America 
continues across some areas of the NW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a 
Gale Warning in the East Atlantic Ocean.

Fresh to strong S to SW winds and moderate to rough seas are 
noted off the northeast Florida coast to 70W due to an approaching
cold front and pre-frontal trough. Showers and thunderstorms with
frequent lightning and gusty winds are also noted moving off the 
central Florida coast and north of Freeport this morning. 
Meanwhile, ridging extends over the rest of the Atlantic offshore 
waters between 51W and 76W Light to gentle winds and slight seas, 
which result from the influence of this high.

In the central Atlantic, a weak cold front extends from 31N48W to
23N54W with a surface trough following the front to 20N64W. 
Scattered moderate convection is along and ahead of the front, 
north of 25N and west of 40W. Moderate southerly winds and 
moderate seas are north of 28N between the front and 43W.

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1030 mb high pressure near 42N33W 
dominates the waters. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the
open waters and moderate seas, except fresh to strong N to NE 
winds north of 18N between the coast of Africa and 20W.

For the forecast, the front will push off the northeast Florida 
coast by Thu and extend from 31N68W to 29N81W Fri morning, and 
weaken as it extends from 31N61W to 28N71W Sat morning. Fresh to 
strong winds will continue ahead of the front through Fri along 
with showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will improve by Fri 
night into the weekend as the front dissipates. Tranquil 
conditions are expected this weekend.

$$
Nepaul