Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 170536

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1236 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC. 


The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone 
near 07N12W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 
04N40W to the coast of Brazil near 03N50W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough from 02N-
06N between 10W-16W. Elsewhere, a band of scattered showers north
of the ITCZ extends from 05N-10N between 22W-42W. 


A 1023 mb high is centered over Alabama near 33N86W. Broken low 
level stratocumulus clouds are over most of the Gulf of Mexico S 
of 28N. The far N Gulf has mostly fair weather. 10-15 kt NE to E 
winds are noted over the Gulf. Some cold air advection remains
over the Gulf but it has already begun to moderate. Radiational
cooling tonight will be a factor over the N Gulf States. 

In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the Gulf with
axis along 90W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf.

Expect surface ridging to prevail over the Gulf waters through 
Mon. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Mon and will be
rather weak. It will then persist through Tue. 


The tail end of a dissipating stationary front is over the NW
Caribbean from central Cuba at 22N78W to NE Honduras at 16N85W. 
20 kt N winds are noted W of front. Scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm W of front. 

In the SW Caribbean, scattered showers are noted south of 10N due
to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

In the upper levels, an upper level jetstream extends from the
Gulf of Honduras to central Cuba, basically over the surface

Expect the surface front to transition to a surface trough later 
tonight. Shower activity in this region will prevail through Sat 
night as trough moves westward to the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to
strong northerly winds and associated seas behind the front will 
subside tonight. Strong and broad high pressure building north of 
the area will support fresh to strong winds along the coast of 
Colombia and along the coast of Venezuela tonight and continuing 
through Wed.


A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N67W to central Cuba 
near 22N78W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. 
15-20 kt N winds are W of front. A 1028 mb high is over the
central Atlantic near 32N49W. A cold front is over the e Atlantic
from 32N20W to 27N30W to 25N40W. Scattered showers are within 90
nm of the front. 

Expect the W Atlantic front to stall Sat morning from 32N66W to 
the central Bahamas. The stationary front will weaken through Sun 
when it is forecast to dissipate. A remnant surface trough will 
then move across the NW waters through Mon night when the next 
cold front will enter the region. The new front will move across 
the northern waters through Wed. 

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine


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Page last modified: Saturday, 17-Nov-2018 05:36:28 UTC