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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 241205
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A system of low pressure over the NE Atlc will support a cold 
front forecast to extend from 31N43W to 29N53W by late Sunday 
night. A strong pressure gradient between this area of low
pressure and surface ridging west of it will lead to the
development of gale-force winds east of the front. Gale 
conditions are forecast to prevail through Monday morning. For 
more details, refer to the NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
Headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 06N10W and 
continues southwestward to 03N32W. The ITCZ continues from that 
point to 00N48W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection 
is from 02N-06N between 05W-15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Generally fair weather prevails across the basin with only 
patches of clouds moving quickly across the area. Winds are 
mostly light to moderate out of the east and southeast across the 
area, and seas are up to 6 feet in some locations. The exception
is the far SE Gulf where latest scatterometer data show fresh
winds, including the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. No
significant changes are expected this weekend. Another front is 
expected to move over the northwestern waters on Sunday, but this 
feature is forecast to stall and weaken shortly after.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fair weather conditions prevail across the basin. The only area
with a few showers is located SW of Hispaniola mainly north of 
16N between 73W-79W. Abundant dry air in the mid-to-upper levels 
of the atmosphere is expected to limit significant thunderstorms 
from developing. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh 
trades across the basin, with locally strong winds within 90 nm of
the coast of Colombia. These winds will pulse every night through
the weekend. Seas are highest near the coast of Colombia, up to 
14 ft, and a large area of seas 8 ft and higher are occurring east
of about 82W. Looking ahead into the weekend, winds and seas are 
expected to gradually lessen as the high pressure system to the 
north of the area weakens in place. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Besides for the low pressure system discussed in the Special
Features section above, generally tranquil weather conditions are
occurring across the Atlantic. Strong surface high pressure 
centered near Bermuda and dry air in the mid and upper-levels are 
supporting fair weather and moderate to fresh winds across the 
subtropical west and central Atlantic waters today. The low 
pressure system over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to move 
eastward and weaken during the next 24 hours, but a cold front is 
expected to move into the same region bringing another round of 
strong winds. Little change is expected over the remainder of the
basin during the next day or two as the high pressure system 
remains stationary and weakens.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos

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Page last modified: Saturday, 24-Feb-2018 12:05:56 UTC