Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 211207

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
807 AM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.


An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 58W from 05N- 
18N, moving west around 15 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery 
shows moderate to high moisture content in the wave's environment.
Scattered showers are present from 10N-16N between 59W-62W. The 
wave is now producing showers over the Windward Islands. 

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W from 08N-18N, 
moving west around 10 kt. The wave corresponds with a 700 mb 
trough, as indicated by model analyses. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the wave axis. 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W 
to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W to 08N30W to 08N41W to the
coast of South America near 05N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is off the coast of W Africa from 05N-14N 
between 19W-40W.


A cold front is over the northern Gulf waters from 30N81W to 
28N92W, then becomes stationary from that point to a 1016 mb low 
near 27N96W. A stationary front extends southward from the low to
21N97W. A prefrontal trough is over the SW Gulf from 21N96W to
18N94W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
17N-23N between 95W-98W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
remainder of the fronts. 20-30 kt N winds are NW of the fronts.
The remainder of the Gulf has 10-15 kt easterly winds with mostly
fair weather. 

The surface low will persist over the NW Gulf through Tue with
associated frontal systems. 


Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward along 09N from 
Costa Rica to northern Colombia near 76W. The tropical wave along
84W is also interacting with the monsoon trough. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean 
from 08N-11N between 75W-83W. Farther east, Total Precipitable 
Water imagery shows high moisture content over northeastern 
Venezuela and the extreme southeastern Caribbean indicating
scattered showers. 

Upper-level diffluence is noted along the northern coast of 
Colombia and the SW Caribbean.  


A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N77W to N Florida near
30N81W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A surface
trough is over the central Atlantic from 30N53W to 25N59W. 

Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over
the W Atlantic supporting the cold front. An upper level low is
centered over the central Atlantic near 28N54W. Upper level
diffluence E of the low center is producing scattered moderate
convection from 21N-33N between 48W-52W. 

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Page last modified: Sunday, 21-Oct-2018 12:07:31 UTC