194 
AXNT20 KNHC 232314
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri May 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 21W, from 15N southward, moving west at 
10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are in the vicinity of the
wave axis and Monsoon Trough.

A tropical wave is along 45W, from 15N southward, moving west at 
15-20 kt. Convection is described in the ITCZ section below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 11N15W 
and extends southwestward to 05N26W. The ITCZ extends from 05N26W
to 04N42W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 03N48W and 
continues to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 01N to 10N between 34W and 55W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

1019 mb high pressure centered in the NE Gulf provides for light
to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin, with 1-3 ft seas. A
few showers are evident on satellite imagery embedded within the
moist low level flow.

For the forecast, high pressure will develop across the northeast
Gulf through early next week, supporting moderate to fresh SE 
wind across the western half of the Gulf. NE to E winds will pulse
to fresh to strong speeds along and just north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula each afternoon and evening through Tue night as a trough
develops inland daily and then drifts westward to the Bay of 
Campeche at night. Smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico are 
expected to maintain hazy sky conditions across the Bay of 
Campeche and western Gulf through Tue night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The latest satellite scatterometer pass detected strong to near-
gale force trades in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of
Colombia. These winds are a result of a strong pressure gradient
between the Colombian Low and high pressure in the NE Gulf of
America and subtropical Atlantic. Seas are 8-11 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh trades prevail with 4-7 ft seas, except in the
NW Caribbean where trades are gentle to moderate and seas are 2-4
ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted in the
far SW Caribbean, from the coast of Panama north to 12N and west
of 80W to Costa Rica.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will continue to
support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas in the 
central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Tue night. 
Moderate to fresh trades are forecast for the majority of the 
remainder basin, except for pulsing fresh to strong winds in the 
Gulf of Honduras at night. A tropical wave will approach the 
tropical Atlantic waters Sat and enter the E Caribbean Sun, thus 
enhancing the winds and seas over the tropical Atlantic waters 
mainly east of the Windward Islands through Mon morning. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on tropical waves. 

A surface trough extends from 31N68W to the northern Bahamas near
27N77W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the surface 
trough. No other significant features are analyzed across the 
tropical Atlantic. Satellite scatterometer indicates light to 
gentle trades north of 20N, and gentle to moderate trades south of
20N. Trades are locally fresh from 07N to 15N west of 40W to the 
Windward Islands. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters. 

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will persist through tonight along a trough reaching from Bermuda
to the northern Bahamas. The trough will dissipate through 
tonight, allowing a surface ridge along 25N to shift northward 
through early next week. This pattern will support moderate to 
fresh winds south of 25N, except for locally strong winds just 
north of Hispaniola pulsing at night. Otherwise, a series of weak 
frontal troughs will sweep eastward across the waters between 
northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight through Sat and then again 
Mon through Tue.

$$
ERA