Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 170523

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC. 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N14W 
to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from that position to 01N34W and 
then extends to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered 
showers is noted between 50 nm on either side of the ITCZ.



Fairly quiet weather conditions prevail across the basin as a
surface ridge extends across the whole area. The ridge is 
anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 28N84W. Gentle to 
moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin with this 
pattern. Sea heights are fairly low, except over the northwestern 
Gulf where buoys are recording 6 ft seas due to the longer fetch. 
No significant change in this weather pattern is expected through 
the weekend.


The undersea volcano Kick 'em Jenny, located north of Grenada 
near 12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of 
Grenada advises mariners to observe a 5 km / 3.1 nm exclusion 
zone around Kick 'em Jenny. Please see http://nadma.gd for further

The tail end of a weakening stationary front is producing a few showers
over portions of Haiti, the Windward Passage, and eastern Cuba. 
Otherwise, fair weather exists across the remainder of the region 
with only the typical patches of clouds moving westward within the
trade wind flow. The trade winds are strongest in the usual 
location near the coast of Colombia, due to the pressure gradient 
between modest high pressure to the north of the area and lower 
pressure over northern South America. Sea heights are also highest
near the coast of Colombia, up to 10 ft. The global models do not
show any significant change from the current weather pattern this
weekend, therefore little change is forecast.


A stationary front enters the discussion area near 32N48W and it 
extends to the Windward Passage. Scattered showers are likely 
within 180 n mi west of the front. Weak surface high pressure is 
located to the west of the frontal boundary, supported by a 1020 
mb high just northeast of the Bahamas near 26N73W. Over the 
central and eastern Atlantic, surface high pressure dominates the
region anchored by a 1024 mb high located near 28N37W. 

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Page last modified: Saturday, 17-Mar-2018 05:23:45 UTC