Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 231154

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
754 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1130 UTC. 


The monsoon trough extends SW from Sierra Leone on the African 
coast near 09N13W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 
00N30W to the northeast coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered 
moderate convection is present from 03N to 05N between 18W and
24W. Similar convection is occurring from 04N to 06N between 10W
and 13W.  



High pressure has pushed SE to the Mississippi Delta near 29N88W.
The high will slide ESE over the NE corner of the Gulf today, 
over the Bahamas on Sat and to the east of the Bahamas on Sun. 
Increasing SE return flow will develop over the Gulf during the 
first half of next week. Return flow over the Gulf will become 
fresh to strong on Mon and Tue as the pressure gradient tightens 
between high pressure east of the Gulf and developing low pressure
over the Central Plains States. A trough will develop in the 
Yucatan peninsula each evening, and shift westward across the 
southwestern corner of the Gulf during the overnight hours. 


Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 
61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises
mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around 
Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the web page, www.nadma.gd, for 
additional information.

A weakening cold front extends SW from the Windward Passage to the
southeastern portion of Jamaica. The cold front will continue to 
weaken and is expected to dissipate later today. Only patchy 
cloudiness and isolated showers were observed along and up to 150 
nm NW of this boundary. High pressure ridging extending SW from 
the Atlantic Ocean will support fresh to locally strong trade 
winds across central and western Caribbean Sea during the next 
several days. Winds will reach near gale force along the NW coast 
of Colombia during the overnight hours. Fresh to strong winds can 
be expected over the Windward Passage and to the lee of Cuba and 


A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N59W, then 
continues SE to 23N68W, then across the Windward Passage. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found along and 
up to 150 nm E of the front to the N of 25N. The front will 
continue moving SE and gradually slow down, eventually reaching 
from 32N48W to Hispaniola on Sun. It is possible that another cold
front will drop southward from 32N on Monday in conjunction with 
a developing area of low pressure off the east coast of the United
States which will cut off from the mid latitude flow. Model 
guidance suggests the front will pass S over the Bahamas as it 

Otherwise, strong 1035 mb high pressure centered SW of the Azores
near 34N34W dominates the eastern two thirds of the basin and 
ridges southwestward to the Leeward Islands. Moderate to fresh NE 
winds are observed in satellite-derived wind data over the 
tropical Atlc N of 05N.

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Page last modified: Friday, 23-Mar-2018 11:54:36 UTC