000
AXNT20 KNHC 310906
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 31 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W/25W from 11N
southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is seen from 03N to 08N between 09W and 37W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 11N southward, 
and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 39W and 47W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W/70W from near the SE
Dominican Republic southward into northwestern Venezuela, and 
moving westward at around 15 kt. Widely scattered showers are 
present S of 17N between 64W and 73W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Guinea and Sierra Leone, then runs southwestward to 07N18W. An 
ITCZ continues westward from 07N18W through 06N24W, resuming W of
a tropical wave from 05.5N26W to 08N42W. Nearby convection is 
described in the tropical waves section above.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms at the waters
adjacent to northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front is seen over the N-central and NE
Gulf coast. A modest surface ridge extends southwestward from the
Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh 
with locally strong E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are 
present across the SW half of the Gulf, including the Bay of 
Campeche. Gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas 
prevail for the NE half of the Gulf.

For the forecast, winds will pulse moderate to fresh in the 
western Gulf during the evenings through the weekend, as well as 
in the eastern Gulf tonight through Sat. Fresh to strong NE to E 
winds will pulse near the northern and western portions of the 
Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoons and at night through 
Sun. Haze due to agricultural fires over Central America and 
Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days reducing
visibility at times.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aided by divergent winds aloft, convergent trade winds are
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms offshore
eastern Honduras and northern Nicaragua. Similar convection 
between Jamaica and western Cuba, and near Haiti has temporarily
diminished. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves 
sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are found at the 
S-central and southeastern basin, including waters near the ABC 
Islands. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E winds and 4 to 6 
ft seas dominate the rest of the Caribbean Sea, except moderate to
fresh winds near the Gulf of Honduras, and 1 to 3 ft seas in the 
NW Caribbean N of 18N.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high 
pressure N of the area and low pressure near Colombia will support
fresh to locally strong trade winds over the south-central 
Caribbean today. The pressure gradient will increase tonight into 
Sat behind a tropical wave that has exited the Caribbean. This 
will lead to fresh to strong trade winds across the central basin 
Sat through early Mon, along with seas to around 8 ft. Winds will 
slightly diminish by early next week. Smoke from agricultural 
fires over Central America is causing reduced visibilities over 
portions of the Gulf of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of surface troughs is analyzed over the SW N Atlantic, one
from 31N76W to 28.5N79.5W, and the other from 31N72W to 24N76W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 27N to 29N
between 63W and 70W. Convergent southerly winds are generating 
similar convection S of 25N including over the central and SE
Bahamas, eastern Cuba, and Hispaniola. Refer to the Monsoon 
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection 
in the Atlantic Ocean.

Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are W of the western trough off
NE Florida along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Mainly gentle to locally
moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the waters N of 20N and W
of 25W. A cold front reaches from 31N25W to 26N41W, continuing as
a stationary front to 29N51W. Seas are 2 to 4 ft elsewhere N of 
20N and W of 55W, with 3 to 5 ft seas N of 20N and E of 55W, 
except 5 to 7 ft N of 29N between 30W and 40W in northerly swell
behind the front. Moderate to locally fresh winds are S of 20N 
along with 4 to 6 ft seas, as well as offshore Africa to 23W from 
the Cabo Verde Islands northward. 

For the forecast, the pair of troughs W of 70W will merge and 
shift E through the upcoming weekend, possibly as an energized 
cold front. This feature will reach from 31N63W to the central 
Bahamas early Sat, from 29N55W to the SE Bahamas by Sun with the 
tail-end of the boundary stalling. High pressure building in 
behind the front will tighten the pressure gradient across the 
region, bringing moderate to fresh winds and across waters north 
of 24N, along with building seas. Conditions will slightly improve
across the waters by early next week.

$$
Lewitsky