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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231200
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1130 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient 
continues between a strong high pressure system near Bermuda and 
lower pressures over northern portions of South America. This 
pattern is supporting winds of minimal gale-force near the coast 
of Colombia through this afternoon. Wave heights within the area 
of gale- force winds will range from 11 to 14 feet. Please read 
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Gale force winds are also occurring over the eastern Atlantic
Ocean associated with a 998 mb low pressure system near 27N 25W. 
This low is expected to approach the Canary Islands during the 
next 24 hours. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas 
Forecast listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS- 
METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 8N13W and 
continues to 1N28W, where the ITCZ begins. The ITCZ extends 
southwestward and crosses the Equator near 31W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is from 1N to 5N between 12W and 
20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is along the Texas Gulf coast, from the upper
Texas coast, into the coastal waters of the Deep South of Texas,
to the coast of NE Mexico near 24N97W. The stationary front 
continues to the Big Bend of Texas, and the Far West of Texas. 
Scattered showers are possible, in areas of scattered- to- broken
low level clouds, from 93W eastward, and to the west of the line 
from 30N92W in Louisiana, to 22N97W along the coast of Mexico.

The current stationary front, that is to the north of 24N between
96W and 97W, will weaken overnight, and then dissipate on Friday.
A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf late on Saturday 
night, then stall and weaken from the FL panhandle to NE Mexico 
from Sunday through Monday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the 
Gale Warning for the waters that are near the coast of Colombia.

Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 16N to
19N between 80W and 82W, about 200 nm to the W of Jamaica. Other
rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low 
level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals have
been generally low...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE 
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC: 0.45 in 
Curacao, and 0.31 in Guadeloupe. 

The winds will pulse to minimal gale-force near the coast of 
Colombia tonight. Strong surface high pressure that is to the
N of the area will support fresh-to-strong trade winds across
the forecast waters that are to the east of 80W through Friday 
night. The area of strong high pressure will weaken from Saturday 
through Monday night, leading to diminishing winds and seas. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N
northward between Africa and 35W. The aforementioned low pressure
system in the SPECIAL FEATURES section is producing numerous
showers and thunderstorms north of 22N and east of 26W. Otherwise,
generally quiet conditions exist across the remainder of the
region supported by strong surface high pressure centered just
west of Bermuda. This high is forecast to weaken and shift 
southward this weekend while a cold front pushes off the SE coast
of the U.S. on Monday, and then becomes stationary along 28N on 
Tuesday. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/JPC

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Page last modified: Friday, 23-Feb-2018 12:00:18 UTC