000
AXNT20 KNHC 072250
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed May 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mainly inland over Africa, and extends
briefly off of the W African coast to 09.5N18W. The ITCZ extends 
from 09.5N18W to 01.5N38W and to coastal Brazil near 02.5N51W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted S of 04N E of 16W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present south of
04.5N between 22W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Bermuda subtropical ridge extends W-SW into the NW Gulf this
evening. Early afternoon satellite scatterometer winds across the
basin showed gentle to moderate SE return flow dominating most of
the Gulf, except for light winds across the Big Bend region. Seas
are generally 3-5 ft, except 2 ft or less NE portions and along
the Florida Gulf coastal waters.

Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident 
in the SW and western Gulf. Otherwise, fair to partly cloudy skies
prevail across the entire basin.

For the forecast, low pressure extending from north-central 
Mexico into the southern U.S. plains will continue to draw in 
mainly fresh SE winds across much of the Gulf into Thu night. 
Locally strong winds are likely to pulse nightly through late week
off the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to 
agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is expected to persist
in the SW and west-central Gulf through Wed. Looking ahead, a 
weak cold front will move off the Texas coast into the northwest 
Gulf Thu night, shift southeast, then slow down and weaken further
as reaches from South Florida to Veracruz, Mexico, by late Sat. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent middle to upper-level trough extends from the 
western Atlantic across Cuba and into the NW Caribbean, and 
continues to support the development of showers and isolated 
thunderstorms across the Greater Antilles and surrounding Atlantic
waters S of 23N. The trough will gradually weaken and move 
farther northeast of the area, but atmospheric conditions will 
remain favorable for intermittent convection capable of producing
gusty winds and frequent lightning early this week. Locally heavy
rainfall continues to bring a threat of flooding to the islands. 
See local weather advisories for more information. Further south,
active convection across the SW Caribbean early today has
diminished, and is presently S of 11N between Colombia and Costa
Rica.

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic, E of Bermuda, 
supports moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds in the 
south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Gentle
to moderate trade winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are noted across the 
remainder of the basin. 

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will
shift slowly eastward through the rest of the week. This pattern
will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south- 
central and SE Caribbean through late week. Meanwhile, expect 
pulses of fresh to strong E winds mainly at night across the Gulf 
of Honduras starting Wed night, between the high pressure and 
lower pressure over the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas will persist elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The SW North Atlantic is dominated by a very broad ridge, anchored
by a 1019 mb high pressure system east of Bermuda near 32N56W. 
The aforementioned upper-level trough continues to enhance  
convection occurring along a shearline along the N coasts of the
Greater Antilles, northward to 23N. Dry and stable conditions are
generally found elsewhere between 40W and the Florida Peninsula. 
Moderate easterly winds and seas of 5-6 ft are found within 150 nm
N of the shearline west of 50W.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N27W to 18N46W, then 
transitions to a shear line that continues westward to the N
coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate W to NW 
winds are found west of the cold front to 50W and north of 24N. N
to NE swell generated across the north central Atlantic is moving
through these area waters west of the front, producing seas of  
7-11 ft between the front and 70W, and to the N of 25N. A broad 
subtropical ridge centered off NW Spain dominates the rest of the 
basin. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and 
lower pressures in NW Africa results in fresh to locally strong NE
winds north of 22N and east of 20W. Seas in the area described 
are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a broad ridge extending east to 
west along roughly 30N will shift eastward through the remainder
of the week. Moderate to fresh E winds south of 23N will diminish
as the ridge shifts eastward. Meanwhile, large N swell associated
with low pressure well north of the region over the north central
Atlantic will move through the waters east of 60W through Thu. 
Looking ahead, expect fresh SW winds off northeast Florida 
starting Wed night ahead of a cold front moving off the Carolinas.

$$
Stripling