637 
AXNT20 KNHC 141014
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Jul 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W-45W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is observed from 04N to 09.5N and between 40W and 48W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W-55W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is observed from 11N to 15N between 51W and 55.5W and
south of 07N between 54W and 57W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Mauritania near 19N16W, continuing southwestward to 10.5N24W to 
08N46W. The ITCZ then continues from 08N46W to the coast of French
Guiana near 05.5N53W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 04N to 12N E of 30W to the coast of Africa, and from
01N to 09.5N between 35W and 57W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level low over the NW Gulf is supporting a few showers
north of 26N and west of 91W.  In the NE Gulf, an upper level 
trough digging southwest into the area continues to produce some
lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms over Florida and 
nearby Gulf waters east of 83.5W. Meanwhile, thunderstorms that 
developed earlier over western Yucatan have weakened and are now 
moving across the western Bay of Campeche. The remainder of the 
basin is under clear to fair skies. 

At the surface, a 1020 mb high pressure in the eastern Gulf near
27N86W is forcing moderate to locally fresh E-SE to SE winds over
much of the western part of the basin, west of 90W. This was 
confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these 
waters are 2-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight 
seas prevail.

For the forecast, the high pressure across the eastern Gulf will
drift slowly westward and into the NW Gulf by Wed. In the
meantime, elongated low pressure near the southeastern U.S.
coast and NE Florida is expected to move westward across Florida
during the next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf on Tue.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development 
of this system during the middle to late part of this week while 
the low pressure moves westward over the northeastern and then 
north-central portions of the Gulf, accompanied by active 
thunderstorms.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from near Bermuda southwestward
across the Bahamas, Cuba and Hispaniola, to the SW Caribbean 
along 12N. A jet segment moving through the base of this trough is  
supporting some showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SW 
Caribbean near the monsoon trough west of 78W. Elsewhere to the
north and northwest, dry conditions prevail. Scattered showers are
moving into the east and northeast Caribbean and across Puerto
Rico and the Mona Passage, ahead of an approaching tropical wave. 

High pressure over the central Atlantic extends a weak ridge
westward along about 29N to near 75W. The pressure gradient south
of the ridge is sustaining fresh to strong easterly trade winds 
in the south- central Caribbean south of 16N, and across the Gulf
of Honduras. Seas in the south-central portions are 6-9 ft and 5-7
ft across the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh 
easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the north-central
and eastern Caribbean. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the weak ridge will continue N of the area 
along 29N today. High pressure across the central Atlantic will 
gradually build westward across the regional Atlantic and into 
Florida tonight through Thu. This pattern will support pulsing 
fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central 
Caribbean through Tue then expand across much of the central basin
Wed through Fri. Fresh E winds are expected across the Gulf of 
Honduras through tonight, and then again Wed through Fri. Moderate
to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern 
Caribbean through the period while gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas will prevail NW portions. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Elongated low pressure has developed tonight from the coastal
waters of South Carolina and Georgia southwestward into south-
central Florida. A 1014 mb low center was analyzed near 31N78.5W.
A middle to upper level low center is just north of the area and 
is digging southward into the area, and providing divergence aloft
that supports scattered moderate to strong convection from 30N 
south and southwestward across the NW Bahamas and to the Straits 
of Florida. To the east of 76W, scattered showers dot the waters 
north of 23N to 65W, due to an upper level trough. The rest of the
tropical Atlantic is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge 
centered on a 1015 mb high near 29N42W, supporting moderate to 
locally fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas to 7 ft south
of 24N and between 25W and 65W. Fresh to strong N-NE winds seas 
of 6-9 ft are noted east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weak ridge along 29N will 
dominate the forecast area east of 75W today. Elongated low 
pressure near the southeastern U.S. coast extending to offshore of
central Florida is expected to move westward across Florida 
during the next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf of 
America by Tue. High pressure over the central Atlantic will then 
build westward across the region and into Florida Tue through Fri 
in the wake of the low pressure. Active thunderstorms are expected
in association with this low pressure system over the waters west
of 75W through Tue. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge building westward and the low pressure will support moderate
to fresh SE to S winds across the Bahamas and through the NW 
zones Tue through early Thu. 

$$
Stripling