Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 181737

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1237 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC. 


Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues between a surface high pressure in the western Atlantic 
and lower surface pressures in northern sections of South 
America. This pattern supports winds pulsing to minimal gale force
near the coast of Colombia through early next week. Wave heights 
within the area of gale-force winds will range between 12-16 ft. 
Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough axis enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N12W 
to 00N22W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N39W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm on either side of 
the ITCZ between 23W and 40W.



A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1023 mb
high centered over central Florida. A frontal boundary extends
across the coastal Gulf states with little to no convection at
this time. A subtle pre-frontal trough is over the northeast
waters from 30N86W to 28N88W. Scattered showers are noted with
this trough. To the southwest, a surface trough continues moving 
westward across the Bay of Campeche with no convection.
Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle southeasterly winds
over the northern half of the basin while gentle to moderate
southeast winds prevail south of 25N. Expect increasing winds 
and building seas by early next week as high pressure strengthens
in the western Atlantic Ocean. The thermal trough will develop
again over the western Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon, drifting
westward across the eastern Bay of Campeche during the overnight 
hours, and then dissipate in the SW Gulf waters by the late 
morning hours.


Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details 
regarding the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia. 

Scattered low-topped showers will continue moving across the 
basin transported by moderate to fresh trades. The tight pressure 
gradient between a high pressure system that is in the western 
Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in northern sections of South 
America, will continue to support pulsing winds of minimal gale 
force near the coast of Colombia through early next week. Fresh to
locally strong trade winds are expected elsewhere across the 
Caribbean Sea. The high pressure will be reinforced by a stronger 
one system on Monday. This stronger system will bring increasing 
winds and building seas across the eastern and central Caribbean, 
and the Tropical N Atlantic waters possibly into the middle of 
next week.


Broad area of high pressure prevails across the basin, centered by
a 1026 mb high near 28N67W and a 1025 mb high near 29N39W. A
weakness in the ridge was analyzed as a surface trough, extending
from 28N43W to 20N44W. A frontal system extends north of the area
across the central Atlantic between 40W-60W. The eastmost portion
of the front will approach 30N during the next 24 hours with some
convection. Another weak frontal boundary will approach the west 
Atlantic from the north by the same time with showers. The ridge 
will be reinforced by a stronger high pressure system through 

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Page last modified: Sunday, 18-Feb-2018 17:37:27 UTC