Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 180521

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
121 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC. 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N11W 
to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from that position to the coast of 
Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 on
either side of the ITCZ between 23W-39W.



A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1019 mb 
high centered east of the northern Bahamas. This pattern continues
to induce gentle to moderate southeast winds across the Gulf
waters, with seas 3 to 4 ft over the western half of the basin 
and 3 ft or less in the eastern Gulf. Haze and fog continue to be
reported in the northwest Gulf mainly north of 27N and west of 
92W. The ridge will shift east Sunday night ahead of a cold front
that will move off the Texas coast on Monday. The front will 
extend from the Florida Big Bend area to Veracruz, Mexico by early
Tuesday. A reinforcing front will overtake the first front by late
Tuesday, accompanied by strong winds and building seas over the 
northern Gulf. The merged front sweeps southeast of the Gulf by 
early Wednesday. Winds and seas diminish across the Gulf through 
mid-week as high pressure builds in the wake of the front across 
the northern Gulf.


The undersea volcano Kick 'em Jenny, located north of Grenada 
near 12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of 
Grenada advises mariners to observe a 5 km / 3.1 nm exclusion 
zone around Kick 'em Jenny. Please see http://nadma.gd for further

The pressure gradient generated by a surface ridge anchored by a 
1019 mb high centered east of the northern Bahamas and lower
pressures over northern South America is supporting moderate to
fresh trades over the south Caribbean mainly south of 15N and east
of 80W. Seas in this area remain 8 to 10 ft per the latest 
observations. Locally strong to near-gale winds are expected to 
pulse within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia each night through 
the next several days. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across 
the remainder of the basin. A weakening cold front will pass 
through the Yucatan Basin by late Tuesday. High pressure will 
build behind the front. Fresh northerly winds will develop by this
time across the western half of the basin. 


A cold front extends from 30N50W to 27N60W to 29N70W. A pre-
frontal trough extends from 31N45W to 26N54W to 23N65W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails within 75 nm on either side of the
trough mainly north of 28N. Fresh to strong winds and 8 to 12 ft 
seas will move across the waters north of 28N and east of 70W 
through today. A ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high just east of 
the northern Bahamas dominates the waters west of 65W and south of
the front and maintains generally light to gentle winds, with  
seas ranging between 6-9 ft in open waters primarily due to 
northerly swell. Winds will increase mainly north of 28N by late 
today as a low pressure moves off the Carolinas coast along with 
another cold front, which will reach the west Atlantic by Monday 
morning. Southerly winds will increase to fresh to strong off 
northeast Florida and north of the Bahamas by late Monday, then 
increase to near-gale to gale force north of 28N, with building 
seas by late Tuesday through Wednesday as low pressure moves east.
Over the eastern Atlantic, 1023 mb high pressure is centered near
30N28W, and this is maintaining gentle flow over the subtropics 
and moderate to fresh winds in the deep tropics.

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Page last modified: Sunday, 18-Mar-2018 05:21:42 UTC