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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)


814 
AXNT20 KNHC 162009
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
1815 UTC Wed Jul 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1702 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northeastern and north-central Gulf (AL93): Surface and radar 
observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure is 
moving westward across the Florida Panhandle between Tallahassee 
and Panama City. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity 
is disorganized and located mainly south and southwest of the 
center. This system is forecast to continue moving westward, and 
could emerge or redevelop over the far northeastern to north-
central portion of the Gulf later today or tonight, reaching the 
coast of Louisiana by Thursday. If this system moves far enough 
offshore, environmental conditions over the Gulf appear 
generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical 
depression could still form over the next couple of days before 
the system moves fully inland by the end of the week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce 
localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through 
through today.  Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding 
for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast beginning late 
today and continuing through Friday. For additional information, 
please refer to products issued by the Weather Prediction Center 
and your local National Weather Service office. This system has 
a medium chance of tropical cyclone development during the next 
48 hours and also during the next 7 days. Please refer to the 
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22.5W, south of 
22N, moving westward at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 10N to 14N and east of 25.5W.

A tropical wave is entering the Caribbean Sea and is along 61W, 
south of 20N. Isolated convection is depicted from 12N to 14N 
along the wave axis. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has been relocated based on 
satellite imagery and tropical wave diagnostics. The wave axis 
is analyzed along 74W, south of 20N. No significant convection 
is depicted at this time in association with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and continues 
southwestward to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 
06.5N53W.
Scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 10N between 
25.5W and 34W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on 
AL93 over the Florida Panhandle.

Complex middle to upper level low pressure extends from the 
Bahamas westward across the eastern Gulf. Broad low to middle 
level cyclonic circulation continues to force clusters of 
moderate to strong convection across the NE Gulf that are 
shifting westward across the waters south of the Florida/Alabama 
state line to Louisiana. Recent scatterometer data depicted near-
gale force winds within the strongest convection. Elsewhere, 
scattered moderate convection is noted across much of the SE 
Gulf waters including the Florida Straits, while generally dry 
conditions prevail west of 91W. A 1016 mb high is centered near 
25N93W. This pattern is producing a weak pressure gradient 
across the Gulf, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight 
to moderate seas across the basin, except for moderate to 
locally fresh winds over the Florida Big Bend offshore waters.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure, Invest AL93, is 
centered inland over the Florida Panhandle, and troughing extends 
southwestward to near 26.5N89W. This system is forecast to 
continue moving westward, and could emerge or redevelop over the 
far northeastern to north-central portion of the Gulf later today 
or tonight, reaching the coast of Louisiana by Thursday. If this 
system moves far enough offshore, environmental conditions over 
the Gulf appear generally favorable for additional development, 
and a tropical depression could still form over the next couple of
days before the system moves fully inland by the end of the week.
Regardless of development, heavy showers and thunderstorms are 
expected over the north-central Gulf through Fri, and erratic 
gusty winds and rough seas will be possible near convection. There
is a medium chance of formation within the next 48 hours. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Wave section for more information of the
tropical waves moving across the basin. 

A sharp upper level trough extends from the central Bahamas 
southward across eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage. This 
feature is providing lift to support scattered moderate convection
over the NW Caribbean, mainly affecting the waters south of Cuba.
Fair and stable conditions generally prevail across the rest of 
the basin. An Atlantic 1025 mb high pressure is centered near
32N61W, and extends a ridge westward to the North Carolina coast.
The pressure gradient south of the ridge is forcing fresh to 
strong easterly winds and seas of 6-10 ft in the central Caribbean
south of 16N, with the strongest winds and highest seas occurring
off northern Colombia. Mainly moderate easterly breezes and 
moderate seas are prevalent in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or 
weaker winds and slight seas are found elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will
occur over the central Caribbean, including through the Windward 
Passage, through Thu as a tight pressure gradient prevails between
high pressure in the central Atlantic and low pressure over 
northern Colombia. Strong E winds and rough to locally very rough 
seas will continue and expand into the west-central basin Thu 
night through Sat morning as the pressure gradient strengthens 
further. Periods of near-gale force winds will be possible 
offshore of northern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each 
night and early morning into Sat. Winds and seas will diminish 
slightly Sat into early next week. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to 
fresh E to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras each 
afternoon and evening into this weekend. Otherwise, moderate to 
fresh trade winds and moderate seas will occur in the eastern 
basin into next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Wave section for more information of the
tropical waves moving across the basin. 

A cold front extends from 31N34W to 23N48W, followed by a 
trough that extends to 25N54W. The rest of the basin is dominated
by an expansive subtropical ridge centered over the central 
Atlantic along 32N. The pressure gradient between this ridge and 
lower pressures associated with Invest 93L over the Florida 
Panhandle is sustaining moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate 
seas west of 77W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
occurring north and south of the Bahamas. South of 27N, between 
55W and the Bahamas, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate
seas prevail. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas 
are present between 40W and the Lesser Antilles and south of 20N. 
In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh E to SE 
winds are expected north of the Greater Antilles to 27N and off 
the coast of Florida west of 75W through Thu as a strong pressure 
gradient prevails between high pressure in the central Atlantic 
and low pressure over northern Colombia. Occasional strong winds 
and rough seas are expected off the coast of northern Hispaniola 
this afternoon into early Sat. Winds will diminish off the coast 
of Florida by early Fri, and north of the Greater Antilles and 
over the Bahamas by Sat morning. South of 20N, moderate to 
occasionally fresh trade winds and moderate seas will occur 
through this weekend. 

$$
KRV
  

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 16-Jul-2025 20:22:40 UTC