Post-Tropical Cyclone Ramon Forecast Discussion (Text)

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WTPZ45 KNHC 261441

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ramon Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202023
700 AM PST Sun Nov 26 2023

Ramon is producing some isolated deep convection to the north and 
northeast of the center, but the system has lacked significant 
thunderstorm activity for the last 12 hours or so.  Therefore Ramon 
is being designated as a remnant low at this time, and this is the 
last advisory.  The current intensity estimate is set at 30 kt 
based on the assumption of a gradual spin down overnight.  this is 
also in agreement with satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB

Although the cyclone could still produce a few sporadic bursts of 
showers and thunderstorms for the next day or so, strong westerly 
shear on the order of 40 to 50 kt and dry low- to mid-tropospheric 
air should preclude the redevelopment of significant, organized deep 
convection.  This is also consistent with simulated satellite 
imagery from the global models that show little or no deep 
convection associated with the system for the next few days.  The 
cyclone should continue to weaken, and dissipate in 48 hours or so.

A mainly westward track is likely to continue into early next week 
while the cyclone moves within the near-surface tradewind flow.

For additional information on Ramon's remnant low please see High 
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at


INIT  26/1500Z 14.4N 123.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  27/0000Z 14.2N 124.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  27/1200Z 14.3N 125.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/0000Z 14.6N 126.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Pasch

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Page last modified: Sunday, 26-Nov-2023 14:41:58 UTC