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Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 110834
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152021
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021

Olaf has been without deep convection for about the last 18 hours, 
and it is therefore being designated as a remnant low.  A 
scatterometer pass from several hours ago still showed winds of 
25-30 kt occurring to the north of the center, so the initial 
intensity remains 30 kt.  Weakening is expected during the next few 
days while the remnant low traverses waters of about 25 degrees 
Celsius and through a very dry air mass.  Global model fields show 
the circulation opening up into a trough anywhere between 2 and 6 
days from now, so as a compromise the official forecast indicates 
this happening by day 4, but it's likely to be sooner than that.

Olaf is now losing latitude and moving south of due west, or 260/5 
kt.  A strengthening low- to mid-level ridge to the north is 
expected to force the remnant low to the west-southwest and 
southwest during the next several days.  In fact, the models have 
been trending toward a more pronounced loss of latitude, and this 
final NHC track forecast has been shifted southward from the 
previous advisory--close to the TVCE model consensus but not nearly 
as far south as the HCCA aid.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 24.4N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  11/1800Z 24.2N 114.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/0600Z 23.7N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/1800Z 22.8N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0600Z 21.5N 118.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  13/1800Z 20.6N 119.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/0600Z 20.1N 120.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


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Page last modified: Saturday, 11-Sep-2021 08:34:48 UTC