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Remnants of Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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126 
WTPZ44 KNHC 200832
TCDEP4

Remnants Of Nineteen-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192018
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018

A pair of ASCAT passes between 0400 and 0500 UTC indicated that the
center of the depression had moved inland over the Mexican state of
Sonora, with winds as high as 25 kt still occurring over the Gulf of
California.  The associated deep convection has taken on a more
linear pattern as it has pushed farther inland across northwestern
Mexico, and it is unlikely that the system still has a closed
surface circulation over the rough terrain.  As such, the depression
is deemed to have dissipated, and this is the last advisory on this
system.  Winds over the Gulf of California should quickly diminish
during the next 6-12 hours.

Moisture associated with the remnants of the depression will
continue to pose a heavy rainfall and flooding threat over the next
couple of days.  Widespread amounts of 5 to 10 inches and isolated
amounts up to 15 inches are forecast in the Mexican states of Sonora
and northern Sinaloa.  These rains could cause life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides.  Heavy rains will also lead to a
heightened risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States
today and in the southern Plains beginning on Friday.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on this system.  For additional information please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.  For information
on the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding, please consult
statements from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 28.1N 110.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS
 12H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg



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Page last modified: Thursday, 20-Sep-2018 08:32:18 UTC