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Post-Tropical Cyclone Genevieve Forecast Discussion (Text)


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139 
WTPZ42 KNHC 212032
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Genevieve Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122020
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2020

Cool waters and less favorable thermodynamic conditions have 
continued to take a toll on Genevieve.  The system has not had any 
deep convection for more than 12 hours, and it is unlikely that any 
organized deep convection will return.  As a result, Genevieve has 
become a post-tropical cyclone and this will be the final NHC 
advisory on this system.  The initial wind speed is set at 35 kt, 
which is in agreement with recent scatterometer data.  The 
post-tropical cyclone should continue to gradually weaken over 
cooler water during the next couple of days, and the global model 
guidance indicates that the circulation will become an open trough 
within 72 hours.

The cyclone continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt.  A 
northwestward motion is forecast to continue over the next couple of 
days, but the forward speed of the system is expected to slow as it 
becomes increasing shallow and is steered by the weaker low-level 
flow.  The track guidance remains tightly clustered and the new 
foreast is an extension of the previous advisory.

This is the final NHC advisory on Genevieve.  Additional information
on the post-tropical cyclone can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 25.8N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  22/0600Z 27.0N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/1800Z 28.3N 119.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/0600Z 29.2N 120.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1800Z 30.2N 121.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



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Page last modified: Friday, 21-Aug-2020 20:32:40 UTC