Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine Forecast Discussion (Text)

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WTPZ42 KNHC 052043

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172022
300 PM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022

Paine has been devoid of organized deep convection for about
18 hours, and it now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level
clouds.  Therefore, the system no longer meets the definition
of a tropical cyclone, and the system has become post-tropical.
The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt, which is based on
recent ASCAT data.  Strong shear and less favorable thermodynamic
conditions are expected to cause additional weakening over the next
day or so.  The global model guidance indicates that the remnant low
will degenerate into a trough of low pressure within 48 hours.

Now that Paine has become vertically shallow, it has turned
west-northwestward.  A continued slow west-northwestward to westward
motion within the low-level flow should continue until dissipation
occurs.  The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward
and it lies along the southern side of the guidance envelope.

This is the last NHC forecast advisory on Paine.  For additional
information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at


INIT  05/2100Z 18.3N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  06/0600Z 18.4N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/1800Z 18.6N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0600Z 18.7N 116.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Brown

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 05-Oct-2022 20:44:04 UTC