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Remnants of Tara Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 170233
TCDEP2

Remnants Of Tara Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Data from several recent microwave overpasses, last-light visible
imagery, and surface observations from Mexico indicate that Tara no
longer has a well-defined surface center. The mid-level center of
the former tropical cyclone appeared to move inland earlier this
evening, though it is unclear whether the surface center made it
that far. Regardless, the high terrain of Mexico has caused the
surface circulation to open into a trough of low pressure and
dissipate. This is the last NHC advisory on Tara. Although the
remnant trough will likely produce intermittent convection near the
coast of Mexico tonight, continued close proximity to land should
prevent it from reorganizing into a tropical cyclone, and all of the
global models indicate that the remnants will gradual weaken over
the next 12 hours or so.

Although Tara is no longer a tropical depression, its remnants
could still cause heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico overnight. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides will be possible in mountainous areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 20.0N 105.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...REMNANTS OF TARA
 12H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 17-Oct-2018 02:33:57 UTC