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Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT44 KNHC 140245
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142019
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019

Deep convection associated with Melissa has continued to decrease
in coverage this evening, and the system has become an exposed
swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.  The initial intensity has been
held at 35 kt, which is in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak
current intensity (CI) number and recent ASCAT data that
revealed some 30-kt winds well southeast of the center.  Strong
westerly vertical wind shear and cool SSTs along the path of
storm is expected to cause weakening, and Melissa should degenerate
into a remnant low later tonight or early Monday.  The global
models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed
by a frontal boundary in 2 to 3 days.

Melissa is moving east-northeastward or 075/16 kt.  There has been
no change to the previous track forecast reasoning.  Melissa should
accelerate east-northeastward to eastward during the next day or
two as it remains embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow.
The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory,
and near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 40.2N  56.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 40.8N  53.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  15/0000Z 41.5N  47.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/1200Z 41.7N  40.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


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Page last modified: Monday, 14-Oct-2019 02:45:55 UTC