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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion (Text)


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838 
WTNT43 KNHC 232036
TCDAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

Leslie's cloud pattern has not become any better organized, nor do
we have any data to support a wind increase. The initial intensity
is then kept at 35 kt.  The evolution of Leslie is very complex and
difficult to forecast. There is a possibility that Leslie will be
absorbed by a larger low that is forecast to form nearby, or that
Leslie could maintain its identity while rotating around the low. At
this time NHC will maintain continuity and forecasts Leslie to be
absorbed by the large low by 72 hours. No significant change in
intensity or structure is anticipated until then.

Leslie continues to be embedded within very light steering currents,
and most likely the cyclone will merely meander today and
tomorrow. After that time, with the development of the new low to
the north, Leslie will likely be steered eastward until it is
absorbed. The track forecast is highly uncertain given the complex
flow pattern surrounding the subtropical cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 33.5N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 33.4N  47.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 33.2N  48.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 33.2N  46.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 33.0N  44.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila



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Page last modified: Sunday, 23-Sep-2018 20:37:15 UTC