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Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 281440
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182019
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019

Cold waters of 16C and increasing shear caused the deep convection
near Pablo's center to dissipate early this morning, and the
cyclone now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds and
showers. This lack of deep convection has caused Pablo to now
become post-tropical. A recent ASCAT pass showed an area of 30 to
35 kt winds northwest of the center of Pablo, and the initial
intensity is set to 35 kt based on those data. In addition, the
scatterometer data showed a much larger area of gale-force
winds well to the north of, but not directly associated with
Pablo.

The post-tropical cyclone will move slowly north to northwest over
the next day or so, until it is absorbed by a much larger
mid-latitude low to its west. The gales occurring north of the
Pablo are expected to persist at least until it is absorbed.

Additional information on this system can be found in:

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50
LFPW and on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header
FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast/.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 46.8N  17.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  29/0000Z 47.4N  17.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  29/1200Z 48.5N  18.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto


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Page last modified: Monday, 28-Oct-2019 14:40:27 UTC