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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gaston Forecast Discussion (Text)


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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gaston Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
300 AM GMT Mon Sep 26 2022

Gaston lacks organized deep convection and has become post-tropical.
Organized convection is not expected to redevelop due to hostile
upper-level winds and a dry surrounding environment. Therefore, this
is the final NHC advisory. ASCAT data valid at 2353 UTC indicated
peak winds between 30-35 kt on the north side of Gaston. Assuming a
little undersampling may have occurred, the initial intensity was 
set on the high end of those estimates at 35 kt.

Gaston is forecast to move generally west-southwestward for the next
day or so, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge that extends across
most of the northern Atlantic. Since deep convection is not expected
to redevelop and no baroclinic forcing is expected to otherwise
sustain the remnants of Gaston, the cyclone should gradually spin
down until it dissipates in about 48 h. No significant changes were
made to the NHC track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 38.6N  38.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  26/1200Z 38.1N  39.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  27/0000Z 37.4N  41.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/1200Z 36.8N  44.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

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Page last modified: Monday, 26-Sep-2022 02:34:47 UTC