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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion (Text)


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251 
WTNT43 KNHC 231432
TCDAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

The development of a subtropical storm that NHC and the global
models have been advertising for the past several days has
materialized, and based on satellite intensity classification from
TAFB and earlier ASCAT data, advisories on Subtropical Storm Leslie
have been initiated.

Leslie is still embedded within an upper-level low and strong winds
are removed from the center.  However, there is a chance as usual
that the subtropical cyclone could develop additional convection
near the center, and the transition to a tropical system during the
next day or so is not out of the question.  Global models do
indicate that a new low is going to form north of Leslie, and that
the subtropical cyclone will become absorbed by the new larger low.
This is the scenario depicted by NHC at this time.

Leslie is embedded within very light steering currents, and most
likely the cyclone will be meandering today and tomorrow.  After
that time, with the development of the new low to the north, Leslie
will likely move east until it becomes absorbed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 33.0N  46.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 33.2N  47.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 33.0N  47.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 33.0N  46.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 33.0N  45.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER LOW

$$
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Page last modified: Sunday, 23-Sep-2018 14:32:36 UTC