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Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose Forecast Discussion (Text)


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479 
WTNT42 KNHC 230833
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
900 AM GMT Thu Sep 23 2021

Rose has withered away.  The cyclone has not produced organized deep 
convection for nearly 24 hours now, and therefore, the system no 
longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. The initial 
intensity of the remnant low is held at 30 kt based on the earlier 
ASCAT data.

Rose is moving northwestward at 9 kt.  A turn to the north is
expected by tonight, followed by a northeast to east motion as the
shallow system moves in the low-level flow ahead of a deep-layer
trough.  The remnant low is expected to persist for a couple of
days and could produce intermittent bursts of deep convection.
However, west-northwesterly shear of 25-30 kt and dry mid-level air
should prevent the convection from organizing.

Additional information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 25.2N  41.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  23/1800Z 26.4N  42.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/0600Z 27.8N  42.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/1800Z 28.7N  40.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/0600Z 29.2N  38.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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Page last modified: Thursday, 23-Sep-2021 08:33:19 UTC