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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 110833
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

The system has lacked significant organized deep convection for 
some time now, and therefore it has degenerated into a 
post-tropical low pressure system.  The maximum sustained winds are 
estimated, perhaps generously, at 30 kt over the Atlantic waters 
well to the southeast of the center.  Continued weakening is 
likely, and the cyclone should dissipate over eastern Canada by 
late Sunday.

The low is moving just east of due north or around 010/15 kt.  Over 
the next day or so, the system should continue to move between a 
mid-level ridge over the northwestern Atlantic and a trough near the 
Great Lakes until it loses its identity.

This is the last advisory on this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 42.4N  73.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  11/1800Z 45.3N  72.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  12/0600Z 49.0N  70.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  12/1800Z 52.5N  67.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


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Page last modified: Saturday, 11-Jul-2020 08:34:06 UTC