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Tropical Depression Delta Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 101441
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Delta Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

Surface observations, Doppler radar data, and satellite imagery 
indicate that Delta has continued to weaken as it moves from 
northeastern Louisiana into western Mississippi.  There are no 
recent surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force 
winds in the areas where the radar data show the strongest winds 
are occurring, so based on this the initial intensity is reduced to 
30 kt.  It should be noted that wind gusts to tropical-storm force 
are still occurring over portions of northern Mississippi and 
southeastern Arkansas, and these should continue through this 
afternoon.

The initial motion is now northeastward or 035/14.  The flow 
between a mid-to upper-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and the 
mid-latitude westerlies over the United States should steer Delta 
or its remnants generally northeastward until the system 
dissipates.  The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from 
the previous forecast, and it lies near the consensus models.

Continued weakening is expected, and Delta is forecast to 
degenerate to a remnant low pressure area in about 24 h.  The 
global models are in good agreement that the cyclone should weaken 
to a trough between 48-60 h, and the intensity forecast follows 
this scenario.

This is the last advisory on Delta issued by the National Hurricane 
Center.  Future information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at     
4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on 
the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. 

Key Messages:

1. Water levels will continue to subside today along the
Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office for additional information.

2. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will persist for a few more 
hours over portions of northern Mississippi and southeastern 
Arkansas.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding and minor river 
flooding across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee 
Valleys today, and into the Southern Appalachians through Sunday. 
Minor to major river flooding will continue across portions of 
Louisiana and Mississippi though much of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 33.1N  90.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  11/0000Z 34.1N  89.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/1200Z 35.5N  87.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/0000Z 37.5N  84.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/1200Z 39.7N  82.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


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Page last modified: Saturday, 10-Oct-2020 14:42:08 UTC