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Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 312034
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018
500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018

Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that Oscar has
become a hurricane-force extratropical low, as the central
convection has all but dissipated and frontal-band-type cloud
features have become better defined.  The scatterometer data show
hurricane-force winds about 70 n mi south of the center, and that
the overall wind field has expanded considerably since the previous
overpass.  The cyclone is expected to maintain an intensity of 60-65
kt for the next 48 h, then gradually weaken as the baroclinic energy
wanes, with dissipation occurring between 96-120 h over the far
northeastern Atlantic.

The initial motion is now 030/30 kt.  Oscar is now well embedded in
the mid-latitude westerlies, and for the next 3-4 days it should
move generally northeastward with a gradual decrease in forward
speed.

Much of the current forecast, especially the intensity and the
size, is based on input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

This is the last advisory on Oscar from the National Hurricane
Center.  Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 39.3N  49.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  01/0600Z 42.6N  46.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  01/1800Z 46.8N  41.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  02/0600Z 50.7N  35.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  02/1800Z 54.2N  28.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  03/1800Z 59.5N  15.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  04/1800Z 67.0N   2.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Oct-2018 20:35:10 UTC