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Subtropical Depression Alberto Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 290843
TCDAT1

Subtropical Depression Alberto Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
400 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Radar and surface observations indicate that Alberto is moving
north-northwestward at about 10 kt across central Alabama, and the
associated convective pattern remains well organized in the radar
data.  During the past few hours, Montgomery has reported sustained
winds near 25 kt with gusts around 35 kt, so the initial intensity
is set to 25 kt.  Alberto will continue to weaken as it moves over
land during the next few days, and the system should degenerate into
a remnant low in 24 h or less.  The low is expected to dissipate
completely by 96 h, and some of the dynamical guidance suggests
this could occur earlier.

Alberto or its remnants should accelerate north-northwestward to
northward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge to the
east and southeast over the next couple of days.  After that, the
system should turn toward the north-northeast as it recurves into
the mid-latitude westerlies.  The new track forecast is similar to
the previous forecast and is again close to the dynamical model
consensus TVCN near the center of the tightly clustered guidance.

This is the last advisory by the National Hurricane Center on
Alberto.  Future information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at
10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on
the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding
across the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia
overnight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the
western Carolinas, and Tennessee today.

2.  Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
today.

3. Future advisories on Alberto will be issued by the Weather
Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 32.3N  86.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  29/1800Z 34.1N  87.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  30/0600Z 36.8N  87.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/1800Z 39.8N  87.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0600Z 43.1N  85.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0600Z 49.5N  79.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 29-May-2018 08:43:25 UTC