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Post-Tropical Cyclone Wanda Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 071447
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Wanda Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212021
300 PM GMT Sun Nov 07 2021

Wanda is no longer generating deep convection in association with 
its low-level circulation. In fact, most of the colder cloud tops 
seen on satellite over the center right now are actually upper-level 
cirrus associated with a cold frontal boundary part of a 
larger mid-latitude cyclone southeast of Greenland. In addition, an 
1156 UTC ASCAT-B pass over Wanda's circulation shows that the north 
side is beginning to open up into a trough as the cold front is 
encroaching on the system. These above factors suggest that Wanda is 
no longer a tropical cyclone, and the system is now classified as a 
post-tropical low as of this advisory. The winds remain 35-kt based 
on the peak wind retrieval of 33-kt from the scatterometer data on 
the southeast side of the circulation.

The system has been accelerating to the northeast with the latest
estimated motion at 045/22 kt. The post-tropical cyclone should
continue to accelerate to the northeast until it merges with
the baroclinic zone approaching it. A 12 hour point is provided for
continuity and to indicate the transition to an extratropical
cyclone, though its quite possible the system will be fully
absorbed by the frontal boundary by then. The track guidance at
12 hours is tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast at that
time fame follows the consensus aids closely.

This is the last NHC advisory on Wanda.  Additional information on 
this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo 
France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 40.2N  33.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  08/0000Z 43.5N  29.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


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Page last modified: Sunday, 07-Nov-2021 14:47:14 UTC