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Hurricane Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities (Text)


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000
FOPZ13 KNHC 240847
PWSEP3

HURRICANE DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082020               
0900 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.                                       

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 140W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
15N 140W       50 23   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

15N 145W       34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

20N 145W       34  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

20N 150W       34  X   X( X)  17(17)  48(65)   1(66)   X(66)   X(66)
20N 150W       50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  30(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
20N 150W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  61(66)   4(70)   X(70)   X(70)
20N 151W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)   4(35)   X(35)   X(35)
20N 151W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)

BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)

20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  45(52)   1(53)   X(53)
20N 154W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   X(20)   X(20)
20N 154W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  37(38)   X(38)   X(38)
HILO           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
HILO           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

BRADSHAW AAF   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)   1(24)   X(24)
BRADSHAW AAF   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

18N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   X(17)   X(17)
SOUTH POINT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  39(39)   3(42)   X(42)
21N 156W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   1(13)   X(13)
21N 156W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)   1(32)   X(32)
KAILUA-KONA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  35(35)   4(39)   X(39)
KAHULUI        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
KAHULUI        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

21N 158W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  11(29)   X(29)
21N 158W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
21N 158W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

BARKING SANDS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)   1(20)
BARKING SANDS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  39(39)   2(41)   X(41)
HANA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)
HANA           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)   5(36)   X(36)
LANAI CITY     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
LANAI CITY     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  28(28)   7(35)   X(35)
KAUNAKAKAI     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
KAUNAKAKAI     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  12(30)   X(30)
HONOLULU       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)

JOINT BASE PHH 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  13(30)   X(30)
JOINT BASE PHH 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)

LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  14(20)   X(20)
LIHUE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)

20N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   X(15)
20N 160W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   1(20)
NIIHAU         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

21N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)   X(21)
21N 160W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)

BUOY 51003     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)

NIHOA          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)

BUOY 51101     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)

22N 164W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)

NECKER         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)

20N 165W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)

FR FRIG SHOALS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)

GARDNER PINN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

20N 170W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

25N 170W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO                                                    

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Page last modified: Friday, 24-Jul-2020 08:48:15 UTC