533 
WTPA42 PHFO 112052
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  46
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP052023
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 11 2023

New deep convection continued to develop within the eyewall of Dora 
earlier this morning. However, more recent images showed that the 
eye has become cloud-filled. In addition, impacts of stronger 
vertical shear were becoming increasingly apparent, with the 
high level outflow being restricted in the southern quadrant and 
the cyclone's overall appearance in the upper levels becoming very 
asymmetric. Dora's center is on the limbs of the GOES-18 and 
Himawari fields of view. Microwave passes have helped with the 
center adjustments, but the long distance from the geostationary 
nadir points on both satellites coupled with the cloud-filled eye 
has resulted in a greater than usual uncertainty in the initial 
position. Dvorak fixes came in at 102 kt from PHFO, JTWC, and SAB. 
The ADT and AiDT estimates were 92 and 88 kt, respectively. Based on 
a blend of these estimates, and the degradation of Dora's 
appearance in the satellite images, the initial intensity for this 
advisory is lowered to 95 kt.

The initial motion for this advisory is 295/16kt. This motion is 
expected to continue over the next 48 hours as Dora moves along the 
southwest flank of a deep layer anticyclone centered to the 
northeast. Dora's forward motion is expected to become slower 
gradually and turn more northwestward as it moves toward a weakness 
in the ridge produced by an upper level trough to the northwest. 
The spread of the guidance envelope is larger than previous 
advisories. This is likely due to differences in the location and 
strength of the upper level trough in the various models. The 
forecast track for this advisory has been shifted slightly south of 
the previous advisory and is aligned with the trend of the TVCE 
consensus. 

Dora's intensity is expected to continue to decrease through the 
forecast period. Based on the track forecast, SSTs under the 
tropical cyclone should remain above 28C. The main issue at this 
point is the strength of the vertical shear. GFS and ECMWF 
guidance shows an increase in the vertical shear over the next 48 
hours. However, there are significant differences in shear strength, 
with the shear in the ECMWF remaining at moderate to strong 
levels beyond 48 hours, and the GFS shear becoming much weaker. The 
intensity forecast is generally in line with the previous advisory 
and is close to a blend of the HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A, and HAFS-B. 

This is the final advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane 
Center on this system. The next bulletin will be issued by RSMC 
Tokyo, Japan unless re-entry or slow-down occurs. For U.S. 
interests, see the public advisories issued by the U.S. NWS Weather 
Forecast Office in Guam, and Department of Defense warnings issued 
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 15.3N 179.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 16.2N 178.7E   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 17.3N 176.4E   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 18.0N 174.4E   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 18.6N 172.5E   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  14/0600Z 19.1N 170.7E   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 20.0N 169.2E   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 22.0N 167.5E   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 24.5N 166.5E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kodama