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Post-Tropical Cyclone Boris Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPA41 PHFO 280240
TCDCP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Boris Discussion Number  15
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP032020
500 PM HST Sat Jun 27 2020

The low-level circulation center of Boris has been exposed through 
most of the day. There have been only two, brief flare ups of deep 
convection near the center during the past 24 hours with another 
one starting now. The system is also surrounded by dry air aloft as 
southeasterly vertical wind shear persists, and JTWC, PHFO, and SAB 
all deemed the system too weak to classify this afternoon. Thus, 
Boris will be designated as a post-tropical remnant low with an 
intensity of 25 kt. Additional bursts of convection can be expected 
as the system slowly spins down over the next couple of days, even 
as vertical wind shear relaxes on Sunday.

The center of Boris is moving toward the west-southwest (255/07 kt) 
under the influence of a deep ridge to the north. This general 
motion, along with a slight increase in forward speed, is expected 
to continue over the next couple of days until dissipation. The 
track forecast is essentially an update from the last advisory and 
remains within a tightly clustered guidance envelope.

This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane 
Center on Boris. Additional information on this system can be found 
in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service 
in Honolulu under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and WMO header FZPN40 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 12.1N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  28/1200Z 11.8N 143.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/0000Z 11.2N 145.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/1200Z 10.5N 147.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Wroe


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Page last modified: Sunday, 28-Jun-2020 02:40:42 UTC