Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010438
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jul 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad and elongated area of low pressure, Invest EP95,
continues to produce a large area of convection across the 
tropical eastern Pacific, along the monsoon trough and a poorly 
defined 1005 mb center located near 13N127W. Fresh to locally 
strong NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are noted north and 
northwest of this feature from 11N to 19N between 120W and 132W. 
Refer to the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH 
section for more details on convection. satellite imagery 
suggests that convection has decreased slightly north of the
center but stay active to the south. A tropical depression is
still expected to form on Wednesday while the system moves 
generally northwestward and then northward. This system is 
expected to remain over the western portion of the East Pacific 
waters, to the W of 120W. Environmental conditions are forecast 
to become less conducive by the end of the week, ending its 
chances of development. This system has a high chance for 
tropical cyclone formation during the next 7 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 113W from 18N southward, and moving 
westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 110W and 120W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from southeastern Panama to 07N99W. A
developing monsoon trough curves southwestward from 15N125W to
EP95 mentioned in the Special Features section above to 05N140W.
An ITCZ continues from 07N99W to 09N111W, then from 10N115W to
15N122W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen near 
and south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 08N west of 90W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present near
the ITCZ from 06N to 10N between 90W and 110W, and up to 200 nm
along either side of the developing monsoon trough.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific, 
southeastward through 30N130W to just N of the Revillagigedo 
Islands. This pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate 
NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell across the Baja 
California waters, with 7 to 8 ft seas across the outer waters of
Baja Norte. Inside the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh SW 
to W gap winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are present in the northern
Gulf, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas at 2 to 4 
ft generally prevail across the rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle
winds dominate the remaining waters from the Revillagigedo 
Islands to near Salina Cruz, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in primarily 
cross-equatorial S swell. A narrow channel of fresh N gap winds 
continues across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending offshore to 
near 13.5N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this area. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms continue across the far offshore waters
S of 12N, offshore of the coasts of eastern Guerrero to Chiapas.

For the forecast, the broad surface ridge extending southeastward
across the eastern Pacific to near the Revillagigedo Islands 
will persist tonight, then begin to drift southwestward and 
weaken slightly through the remainder of the week. This pattern 
will produce gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters 
through Sat, with locally fresh winds possibly each late 
afternoon and evening. Moderate NW swell moving across these 
waters will maintain moderate seas through Thu, except rough seas
across the far western offshore waters of Baja Norte. A narrow 
channel of fresh N to NE gap winds will continue to pulse to 
strong, and sustain moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region from the nighttime to late morning hours each 
night and morning through Sat. Moderate to fresh W to SW gap 
winds are also expected in the northern Gulf of California until 
late Wed morning. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region
and extend offshore to near 92W and northward across southwestern 
Nicaragua. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across this area. Moderate N to NE winds
continue across the Gulf of Panama and extend southward to near 
04.5N, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6
ft in S to SW swell prevail across the remainder central America
and Colombia offshore waters N of 02N. Gentle to moderate S 
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in cross-equatorial S swell dominate 
waters S of 02N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Refer 
to the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section for 
more detail on convection in the region, primarily extending from
Colombia westward to 88W.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong gap winds and moderate
to rough seas will continue across the Papagayo region 
throughout the week, and then begin to weaken slightly this 
weekend. NE to E swell generated by these winds is expected to 
maintain moderate to locally rough seas well downstream to beyond
90W. Farther south, cross-equatorial southerly swell will keep 
moderate to locally rough seas near the Galapagos Islands and off
Ecuador through Thu morning. Periods of heavy showers and strong
thunderstorms persisting near the Colombia coast, and across the
southern offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama should expand 
northward late tonight through Wed night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section about Invest Area EP95.

A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific
southeastward through 30N130W to just N of the Revillagigedo 
Islands, and is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds, and 6
to 8 ft seas in N to NE swell, north of the monsoon trough and 
west of 120W. Winds and seas are higher to the N and NW of Invest
EP95 as described above. East of 120W and north of the ITCZ, 
gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 6 to 7 ft seas in mixed 
moderate swell prevail. Light to gentle winds and seas at 6 to 8 
ft in mixed moderate swell are noted near and south of the 
monsoon trough to near 04N. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S 
winds with 6 to 9 ft seas in cross- equatorial S and SE swell 
prevail elsewhere south of 04N. 

For the forecast, regardless of development on EP95, a gradual 
increase of winds and seas will continue across the north and
northwest portions of this area of low pressure this week, as it
moves northward toward the broad high pressure ridge persisting
north of the area. Outside of this system, little changes are 
anticipated north of the ITCZ for the next several days. South of
the ITCZ, a gradual decrease in both winds and seas will occur 
by Wed.

$$

Chan