Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020350
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jun 02 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An area of low pressure is well to the SW of the southern tip of
Baja California along the monsoon trough. Low pressure of 1006
mb, Invest-EP90, is along the trough near 09.5N127W. Satellite 
imagery shows numerous strong convection within 90 nm of low 
in the SW quadrant and within 60 nm of the low in the NW
quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is noted elsewhere from 06.5N to 12.5N between 124W and 132W.
This area of low pressure has become slightly better defined 
during the day and evening as noted in more cyclonic turning 
of the clouds in this area. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression 
is expected to form during the next couple of days while the 
system moves westward or west-northwestward across the western 
portion of the eastern Pacific. The low has a medium chance of 
tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of a tropical wave axis is along 82W N of 
04N, moving westward at around 5 kt. Scattered showers are within
30 to 60 nm east of the wave from 07N to 09N and within 30 nm 
west of the wave from 06N to 08N.

A tropical wave has its axis along 108W from 04N to 16N, moving 
westward near 05 kt. Scattered moderate within 60 nm west of 
the wave from 06N to 10N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia
southwestward to 10N85W to 12N98W to 11N110W to low pressure 
near 09N127.5W 1006 mb to low pressure near 06N137W 1008 mb 
to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is from 05N to 09N between 115W-120W, also within 
180 nm N of the trough between 133W-137W, within 60 nm S of the 
trough between 136W-138W and within 30 nm of the trough between 
102W-107W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm N of 
the trough between 118W-124W, also from 06N to 10N between 
110W-114W, and within 60 nm S of the trough between 138W-140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends into the region to just NW of the 
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and a surface trough along the Gulf of California is producing 
moderate NW to N winds across the Baja California offshore 
waters. NW swell is producing seas to 8 ft over the waters N of 
Cabo San Lazaro. Inside the Gulf of California, light to gentle 
winds and slight seas prevail, except for 3 to 6 ft seas in SW 
swell near the entrance. For the remainder of the offshore 
waters, light to gentle winds dominate along with 5 to 7 ft seas 
primarily in long-period S to SW swell, including the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, the NW swell will propagate through the 
offshore waters of Baja California Norte through Fri night, 
bringing rough seas. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is 
likely to form offshore of Central America and southern Mexico 
late this week or over the weekend. Environmental conditions 
appear favorable for some development of this system thereafter, 
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while it 
moves westward to northwestward.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Mainly light and variable winds are over the Central American 
offshore waters under a weak pressure pattern along with 
moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period S to SW swell. The
exception is moderate gap winds in the Papagayo region. Gentle 
south to southeast winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long- 
period SW swell are over the waters S of the monsoon trough over 
the waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.

For the forecast, the weak pressure pattern in place will 
provide for generally light to gentle winds through the period, 
except for nocturnal pulses of moderate to fresh gap winds across
the Papagayo region. Long period SW swell is forecast to enter 
the southern Galapagos adjacent waters Tue night and begin to 
subside Thu afternoon. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is 
likely to form offshore of Central America and southern Mexico 
late this week or over the weekend. Environmental conditions 
appear favorable for some development of this system thereafter, 
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while it 
moves westward to northwestward.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on low
pressure in the western basin along the monsoon trough that is
expected to become a tropical depression during the next couple
of days.

High pressure dominates waters N of the monsoon trough, with the
pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure 
within the monsoon trough supporting moderate to locally fresh 
trade winds N of the monsoon trough. Seas over these waters are 
in the 7 to 9 ft range in a mix of trade wind waves and NW to N 
swell. Gentle to locally moderate winds are S of the monsoon 
trough. Seas over these waters are generally 7 to 8 ft in S to SW
swell as indicated by recent altimeter satellite data passes 
over these waters.

Aside from the possible tropical cyclone as mentioned above, the
high pressure will weaken some toward the end of the week as the
Special Features low pressure tracks to the NW over the western 
portion of the area resulting in a weakening of the trade winds
E of about 130W, becoming light and variable from 04N to 12N 
between 120W and 130W. Seas over these waters are forecast to
subside to around 5 to 7 ft by early Thu. Mostly fresh trade 
winds are expected elsewhere outside the potential tropical 
cyclone low, namely W of 125W and N of about 08N along with seas 
of 7 to 9 ft in merging NE and SW long-period swell Wed through 
Fri. 

$$
Aguirre