Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

036 
AXPZ20 KNHC 171529
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Aug 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall Colombia: A tropical wave, currently analyzed 
near 77W, will cross NW Colombia through tonight, interacting
with the monsoon trough and combining with enhanced divergence
aloft to induce numerous thunderstorms over the Choco-Colombia.
Heavy rainfall from these thunderstorms may lead to flooding.
Conditions should improve Tuesday as the wave moves into the
Eastern Pacific.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 77W from 02N near the border
of Ecuador and Colombia northward to across eastern Panama near
the border with Colombia, and continuing into the Caribbean Sea,
moving westward around 15 kt. Refer to the Special Features 
section below for additional details including Heavy Rainfall.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 98W from just offshore 
Oaxaca southward to the Equator, moving westward around 25 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between
93W and 100W. An area of low pressure is likely to form in
association with this wave several hundred miles south of the
coast of southern Mexico late this week. Gradual development of
this system is expected at a tropical depression may form by 
this weekend as the low moves west-northwest while staying south 
of Mexico. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 124W from 16N southward,
moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted east of this wave from 07N to 12N between 114W and 124W. A
broad area of low pressure could form well to the southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands during the latter part of the week. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure near the
coast of northern Colombia at 10N73W to across the border of 
Costa Rica and Nicaragua to the Gulf of Papagayo at 11N85W to 
07N102W. The ITCZ extends from 07N102W to 08N122W, then resumes 
west of a tropical wave from 07N125W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 02N to 14N between 77W and 93W, and from 05N to 13N 
between 124W and 131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical
wave that has a potential for tropical development offshore
southern Mexico late this week. 

Strong to near gale north gap winds are over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Fresh northwest winds are near the Pacific coast of
Baja California, locally strong near and north of Punta Eugenia.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 7 to 10 ft 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 4 to 6 ft over the remaining open 
Pacific offshore waters, except to 7 ft near Punta Eugenia, and 1
to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. A surface trough extending
SE from just offshore Cabo Corrientes is inducing numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection between its axis and the
coast, leading to gusty winds and squally weather, including 
locally higher seas. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the Gulf of America and relatively lower pressure south of 
Mexico will continue to induce pulses of strong north winds over 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed night, with moderate to fresh
pulses thereafter. Winds will reach reach near gale force at 
times tonight and Tue night, with resultant rough seas. Fresh 
northwest winds are forecast off of the Baja California peninsula
through Tue night, with winds reaching strong speeds near Punta 
Eugenia through this evening. Meanwhile, a surge of strong SE 
winds may move from N of Cabo Corrientes into the southern Gulf 
of California tonight into early Tue, likely associated with a 
complex of convection.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

See Special Features section above for information on heavy
rainfall that may cause flooding over the day or so in portions 
of Colombia.

Fresh northeast to east gap winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo 
region. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker north of the 
monsoon trough, and moderate to fresh south of the monsoon 
trough. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in long-period southwest swell, 
except to 8 ft southwest of the Galapagos Islands. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the western Caribbean and relatively lower pressure over 
Central America will lead to fresh northeast to east gap winds 
over Papagayo region, locally strong to near gale-force at times 
with occassionally and locally rough seas as a result. Moderate 
to fresh winds will extend away from this area across the far 
offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala midweek. Moderate to
fresh southerly winds will pulse south of the monsoon trough 
into tonight before weakening. Large southerly swell will impact 
waters mainly from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through the 
next several days, largest expected later today through Wed. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical
wave in the western basin that has potential for tropical develop
late this week.

A surface trough is over the northwest waters, analyzed from 
23N130W to 18N140W, with moderate to fresh winds from 17N to 24N
to the west of 130W and the trough. Associated scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is found from 24N to 28N 
between 125W and 134W. Some moderate to fresh winds are also 
noted from 09N to 24N between 117W and 130W near a tropical wave 
described above. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are found south 
of the monsoon trough to the east of 124W, where seas are 7 to 9
ft in mixed SE and SW swells. Winds are moderate or weaker 
across the remainder of the open waters, along with seas of 4 to 
7 ft.

For the forecast, an area of low pressure could form several 
hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico 
around the middle part of the week, associated with a tropical 
wave currently analyzed near 77W. Gradual development of this 
system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could 
develop towards the end of the week or next weekend as the system
moves west- northwestward while staying south of Mexico. In 
addition, a broad area of low pressure could form well to the 
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands during the latter part of the 
week, associated with a tropical wave currently analyzed near 
124W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form 
towards the end of the week and into the weekend as the system 
moves generally westward across the western portion of the east 
Pacific and into the central Pacific. Regardless of development, 
expect some increasing winds and seas with these areas.

$$
Konarik