Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230315
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jul 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Fausto is centered near 17.5N 123.0W at 23/0300 UTC, 
moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with 
gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous moderate to 
scattered strong convection is occurring within 120 nm of center.
Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted elsewhere from 13.5N to 21N between 116.5W and 124W. Fausto
is moving west-northwestward over open waters, with a continued 
west-northwestward to westward motion expected to continue
through the weekend, along with an increase in forward speed
beginning later tonight or Thu. Some gradual strengthening is
possible through the next 36 hours, followed by slow weakening 
on Friday and into the weekend. Swells generated by Fausto are 
affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California 
Peninsula and are spreading northward toward the coast of 
southern California. These swells are likely to cause life- 
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Eastern and Central East Pacific: A tropical wave with axis along
93W continues to move into a large area of disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms occurring about the monsoon trough across the
tropical eastern Pacific. Gradual organization of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the 
weekend while it moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 
mph, remaining well offshore of Mexico. The latest Tropical 
Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical 
cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 
days. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 93W N of 05N extending into western 
Guatemala, moving westward near 10 kt. Associated convection is
described below. Please, see the Special Features section for 
more information related to this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 10N75W to 08.5N92W to
07.5N101W to 10N114W, then resumes SW of Fausto from 13N126W to 
beyond 09N140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 03N to 11.5N E of 119W to the 
coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
06N to 11.5N W of 137W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane
Fausto, centered about 800 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja 
California. Fausto continues to move westward and away from the 
Revillagigedo Islands, allowing high pressure to build in across
the offshore waters of Baja California and to the Revillagigedos.
This pattern is producing leaving gentle to moderate NW to N
winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft in W swell across those area waters.

A ridge continues to build between Hurricane Fausto and the Baja
California Peninsula. Late afternoon satellite scatterometer 
data indicated fresh to locally strong NW winds north of Punta 
Eugenia, and moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds between 
Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas. S to SW swell generating by 
Fausto is spreading across the area, and mixing with the building
northerly wind waves to produce seas 6 to 8 ft across the Baja
waters, highest N of Punta Eugenia. Gentle to moderate NW to W 
winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the 
Mexican offshore waters, except for fresh to strong N gap winds 
across the Tehuantepec region and downwind to about 15N. 

For the forecast, as Hurricane Fausto continues to move westward
and away from the offshore waters, high pressure will build 
across the Baja California offshore waters through Thu night. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a meandering trough 
over the Gulf of California will support fresh to strong NW winds
and building seas N of Punta Eugenia through Thu night into Fri 
morning. Swells generated by Fausto will persist through Thu 
before fading. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from 
your local weather office. In the Gulf of California, mainly 
gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected, increasing to 
fresh speeds Fri night through Sat night. Fresh northerly winds 
are forecast in the Tehuantepec region during the overnight and 
early morning hours through the week, with locally rough seas. 
Please refer to the Special feature section for details on the 
next tropical cyclone forecast to develop well offshore of Mexico
over the upcoming weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Afternoon satellite scatterometer wind data show fresh to strong
N to E winds continuing across the Papagayo region and extending 
downwind to near 90W, and northward to northwestern Nicaragua. 
Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds based on altimeter data. This
is occurring behind a tropical wave with axis along 93W. The 
monsoon trough remains active across the offshore waters,
producing scattered to locally numerous convection N of 06N. 
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4 to 5 ft in S 
to SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to 
rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through Thu,
then mainly moderate to fresh winds are expected. Gentle to 
moderate N winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama with slight 
to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in 
SW swell will prevail elsewhere. Seas, associated with a broad 
area of low pressure currently located along the monsoon trough,
may impact the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Thu 
through Fri, building seas to 6 to 8 ft. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Fausto, centered about 800 nm WSW of the southern tip 
of Baja California.

Hurricane Fausto dominates conditions over the High Seas forecast
waters roughly from 12N to 23N between 118W and 127W. Fresh to 
strong winds outside of the immediate circulation of Fausto 
extend northward to 23N, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far N of 
Fausto as 26N. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the waters between 
Baja California and Fausto, and also N of 15N W of 125W. Moderate
or weaker winds with moderate to rough seas prevail. 

For the forecast, Hurricane Fausto will move to 17.7N 124.7W Thu
morning, 18.0N 127.4W Thu afternoon, 18.3N 130.1W Fri morning, 
18.6N 132.8W Fri afternoon, 18.9N 135.4W Sat morning, and 19.2N
137.8W Sat afternoon. Fausto will change little in intensity as 
it moves to near 19.9N 142.6W Sun afternoon. Please refer to the
Special feature section for details on the next tropical cyclone
forecast to develop well offshore of Mexico over the upcoming 
weekend. Strong cross-equatorial swell will begin to move into 
the area Wed night and slowly build Thu night through the 
weekend.

$$
Stripling