Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

935 
AXPZ20 KNHC 110803
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Aug 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 82W north of 06N through 
Costa Rica, moving west at 15-20 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 113W from 02N to 18N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to 07N80W to 09N85W. The 
ITCZ extends from 08N90W to 08N108W. The monsoon trough resumes 
from 10N114W to 16N125W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 05N to 07N between 82W and 85W, from 04N to 
07N between 95W and 105W, from 08N to 18N between 107W and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed strong to near-gale
force gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning.
Rough seas likely accompany these winds. Moderate SE winds are 
over the northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, gentle to 
locally moderate winds prevail over the discussion waters. 
Moderate seas are over the open waters off Mexico with slight 
seas in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas are
expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of
the week. The pressure gradient between high pressure W of the
area and lower pressures over northern Mexico will support
moderate to locally fresh southerly winds across the northern
Gulf of California Thu. A moderate pressure gradient will 
promote mostly gentle to moderate winds across the remainder 
offshore waters of Mexico along with moderate seas. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong 
E gap winds persist across and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo.
Moderate to rough seas accompany these winds. Gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds and 
occasionally rough seas will pulse across the Papagayo region 
through the remainder of the week. Light to gentle winds and 
moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere through Sat 
night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and low pressures
within the monsoon trough is supporting a large swath of fresh to
locally strong winds N of the monsoon trough to near 20N and 
west of 125W. Rough seas cover these waters. Convergence with the
broad area of fresh to strong winds is generating a large area 
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate 
winds, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms is located well to the west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development, and a 
tropical depression could form during the next few days while the
system moves slowly northwestward across the western portion of 
the East Pacific. Winds and seas are forecast to increase across 
the west-central portion of the forecast region by the middle 
part of the week as this system develops.

$$
Christensen