Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271538 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
1605 UTC Thu Aug 27 2026

Corrected to add Gale Warning for Invest EP93

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central East Pacific (Invest EP93): Showers and thunderstorms 
continue to show signs of organization in association with a low 
pressure system located about 780 nautical miles south of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental 
conditions are expected to support continued development of this 
system, and a tropical depression is expected to form later 
today or tonight. The system is forecast to move west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, well offshore of Mexico. This 
system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the 
next 48 hours and 7 days. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, winds are forecast to increase to around 35 kt by 48
hours, if not sooner, and a Gale Warning is now in effect by then
for this system. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at website: 
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

Western East Pacific (Invest EP94): Showers and thunderstorms 
associated with a low pressure area located well east-southeast 
of the Hawaiian Islands have become a little better organized. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over 
the next days while the system drifts to the northeast, before 
turning westward this weekend. This system has a high chance of 
tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and 7 days. 
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more 
details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 82W mainly north of the
area, north of 08N near the border of Panama and Costa Rica,
moving westward at around 20 kt. Any nearby convection is
described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon 
Trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 92.5W north of 04N to near
the border of Guatemala and Mexico, moving westward at around 15
kt. Any nearby convection is described below in the Intertropical
Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N79W to 11N86W to 08N96W to low
pressure (EP93) near 09N111W to 14N121W to 19N126W to low
pressure (EP94) near 11N135W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered to
numerous isolated to scattered strong from 04N to 16N between 79W
and 121W, from 07N to 10N between 118W and 125W, and from 07N to
13N between 130W and 138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
low pressure Invest EP93 near 09N111W with the high chance for 
tropical cyclone formation.

Fresh to strong northerly gap winds continue to blow in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec with seas to around 8 ft. Winds are moderate or 
weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas, except slight in the 
Gulf of California. Active showers and thunderstorms are present 
over the outer offshore waters areas of southern and southwestern
Mexico as described in the monsoon trough section above with 
locally higher winds and seas possible there.

For the forecast, an area of low pressure, Invest EP93, centered
well southwest of southern Mexico has a chance for tropical 
cyclone formation, but will stay outside of the offshore waters 
as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt through Sun. The 
center of the low pressure will make its closest point of 
approach within 120 nm to the southwest of Clarion Island Fri 
night into Sat. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue
to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun with 
locally rough seas there at times. A surge of fresh to strong 
southeasterly winds likely associated with convective complexes 
may move up the central and northern Gulf of California both Fri 
and Sat nights. Looking ahead, another area of low pressure could
form this weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual 
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form 
by early next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward 
at 10 to 15 kt. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly gap winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo
well downwind to near 10N93W with 5 to 6 ft seas. Winds are
moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, with moderate
seas, except slight near the coasts of Colombia and eastern
Panama. Active showers and thunderstorms are present over the 
outer offshore waters areas of southern and southwestern Mexico 
as described in the monsoon trough section above with locally 
higher winds and seas possible there.

For the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue
to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the Sat night, 
then moderate to fresh thereafter, with associated moderate to 
fresh winds extending well downwind to the outer offshore waters 
of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may freshen south 
of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next week. Winds 
will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. 
Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information about 
low pressure Invest EP93 with the high chance of tropical 
cyclone formation and a developing Gale Warning, and low 
pressure, Invest EP94 in the far west-central waters, also with 
the high chance of tropical cyclone formation. 

The remnant low of Post-Tropical Iselle is near 23N126W with
fresh to strong winds around rough to very rough seas from 19N to
29N between 121W and 132W. Otherwise, mainly moderate winds 
prevail north of the monsoon trough away from remnant Iselle, 
EP93 and EP94. South of the monsoon trough, mainly moderate to 
winds prevail except locally fresh south of 05N and west of 105W.
Active showers and thunderstorms are present over the outer 
offshore waters areas of southern and southwestern Mexico as 
described in the monsoon trough section above with locally higher
winds and seas possible there.

For the forecast, the remnant low of Iselle will gradually open
up into a trough by the upcoming weekend while remnant winds and
seas persist as it shifts west-northwest to 140W where it will
reach by the end of the weekend. Other than the two remaining 
Special Features areas, Invest EP93 and Invest EP94, above, large
southwesterly swell will impact the southern waters through tonight
before decaying. Looking ahead, much larger and more expansive 
southwesterly swell may impact the southern waters by early next 
week. Little change is forecast elsewhere away from the Special 
Features areas.

$$
Lewitsky