Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Nov 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant NW Swell Event: A series of NW swell sets will 
continue to impact the waters N of about 05N for the next several
days associated with the passage of several cold fronts. 
Currently, a cold front extends from 30N121.5W SW to 25N140W. 
Ahead of the front, and extending as far south of 06.5N and W of 
112W, rough seas of 8 to 12 ft in decaying NW swell associated 
with a former front is ongoing. The period of this swell is 10 to
12 seconds. Behind the front, a reinforcing and larger set of NW
swell with 16 to 20 second period continues to spread across the
northern waters with peak seas around 22 ft. By this evening, 
the front is forecast to reach Baja California Norte N of Punta 
Eugenia to 23N130W while weakening, with rough seas of 12 to 21 
ft spreading as far south as 17N, and rough seas of 8 to 11 ft to
07N. These high energy waves will have a period of 13 to 18 
seconds. These seas will keep spreading SE as yet another set 
with seas of 12 ft or greater arrives to near 30N140W by late 
tonight into early Sun, spreading across the majority of the 
waters into early next week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas
Forecast at website: 
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/HSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Panama near 08N82W westward
to 05N92W to 09N114W. The ITCZ extends from 09N114W to beyond 
07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
between the coasts of W Colombia and Ecuador to 96W. Similar 
convection extends from 02S to 10N between 101W and 120W, and 
from 07N to 12.5N W of 127W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Locally fresh N winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in N swell prevail in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. Elsewhere, moderate to 
locally fresh NW to W winds are occurring offshore of Baja 
California north of Cabo San Lazaro, ahead of a low pressure 
system and an associated cold front centered over coastal 
Southern California. Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft are occurring 
offshore of the Baja peninsula. In the Gulf of California, 
moderate to locally fresh SW to NW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are 
noted, along a trough axis that extends through the region. 
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas in NW swell 
prevail elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters. 

For the forecast, locally fresh N winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will subside this morning. Fresh to strong N to NE 
winds and rough seas are expected to develop in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec by Mon evening. Winds will pulse to gale force Tue 
evening through the end of next week, and very rough seas over 12
ft will accompany these winds. Elsewhere, a new N to NW swell 
will support very rough seas offshore of Baja California Norte by
tonight, with peak seas of 12 to 20 ft expanding offshore of the
whole peninsula through Sun. Seas may temporarily subside to 8 
to 12 ft late Sun into early Mon before the next reinforcing 
swell event promotes seas of 8 to 14 ft through midweek. In 
addition, a cold front is expected to produce fresh to locally 
strong N to NW winds north of Cabo San Lazaro late Mon into Tue. 
Elsewhere, rough seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell will expand to 
offshore of southwestern Mexico Sun into early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate E to NE winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo this
morning. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds are noted as a light
pressure gradient prevails over the Central American offshore
waters. Moderate seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed SW and NW swell
prevail. 

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds 
are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo into early next 
week, with fresh to strong winds developing by Tue. Moderate N 
winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama through midweek. 
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail 
elsewhere. Looking ahead, rough seas in N swell may develop well 
offshore of Guatemala by the middle of next week, prompted by 
gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a set of 
NW swell may build seas to 8 ft or greater SSW of the Galapagos 
Islands by the middle of next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a series of significant NW swell sets which will impact much of
the open waters.

A cold front extends from 30N121.5W to 25N140W. The pressure
gradient between this front and the ITCZ in the deep tropics is
supporting moderate to occasionally fresh NE winds, generally
south of 20N and west of 115W. Significant NW swell is producing
widespread rough seas in excess of 8 ft N of 08N over much of the
open waters, with peak seas of 12 to 22 ft located north of 22N
and west of 122W, as noted on recent buoy data. Elsewhere,
locally rough seas around 8 ft in mixed SW and NW swell are 
occurring near the equator offshore of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, a series of NW swell sets will continue to 
impact the waters N of about 05N for the next several days 
associated with the passage of several cold fronts. The 
aforementioned cold front is forecast to reach Baja California 
Norte N of Punta Eugenia to 23N130W while weakening, with rough 
seas of 12 to 21 ft spreading as far south as 17N, and rough seas
of 8 to 11 ft to 07N. These high energy waves will have a period
of 13 to 18 seconds. These seas will keep spreading SE as yet 
another set with seas of 12 ft or greater arrives to near 30N140W
by late tonight into early Sun, spreading across the majority of
the waters into early next week. In addition, fresh to strong N 
to NE winds are expected behind the passage of another cold 
front, generally north of 10N and west of 120W late Sun through 
the middle of next week. Otherwise, the mixed swell over the 
equatorial waters will diminish later this morning. 

$$
ADAMS