Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 010339
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Jul 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0335 UTC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W, south 
of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection 
is observed from 05N to 10N and between 22W and 27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W, south of
16N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection 
is present from 05N to 10N and between 35W and 45W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 72W, south 
of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is
noted along the trough axis over the Caribbean waters.

A SW Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 82W, south of 
19N, moving westward near 15 kt. No convection is found along the
trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 08N31W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N31W to 07N40W and continues from 07N42W to 
07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 10N 
and between 27W and 35W and also south of 09N and west of 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Diurnal storms the developed over Florida and the NE Gulf coast
are affecting the nearshore waters. Similarly, thunderstorms over
western Yucatan are moving into the eastern Bay of Campeche. The
Gulf is dominated by a weak ridge that supports moderate to 
locally fresh NE-E and seas of 2-4 ft off Yucatan and the eastern
Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight
seas prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region
the remainder of the week. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Sun
night due to local effects associated with a surface trough.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail across the western
half of the Gulf while moderate or weaker winds are expected
elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in Cuba and
Hispaniola and affecting the nearshore waters. Similar convection
is seen in the Gulf of Honduras. The subtropical ridge north of
the basin continues to force fresh to near-gale easterly trade 
winds across much of the central Caribbean. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass captured winds to 30 kt. Seas in these waters are 
5-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW 
Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are
found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter 
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin combined
with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds
over the central Caribbean through Sun night, except offshore
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela where winds are likely to
reach near gale-force at night. Moderate to rough seas are
expected with the strongest winds. Otherwise, moderate to fresh
trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or
weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary draped along 31N over the SW North Atlantic is
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of
28N and between 55W and 73W. Meanwhile, a surface trough in the
north-central Atlantic supports isolated showers from 24N to 29N
and between 43W and 50W. The remainder of the basin is dominated
by an extensive subtropical ridge. Moderate to locally fresh NE
winds and moderate seas are found north of 28N and west of 75W.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft south
of 22N and east of 30W. 

In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to near gale-force northerly 
winds and seas of 6-10 ft are evident north of 22N and east of 
25W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed winds up to 33 
kt between the water passages in the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front is across the NW
waters, and extends from 30N70W to 28N77W. The front will dissipate
and its remnant trough will drift southward trough Wed morning, 
then begin moving westward toward the southeastern U.S. coast late
Wed into Thu. Under this weather pattern, moderate or weaker 
winds are expected, except for moderate to fresh winds offshore 
Hispaniola mainly late in the afternoons into the early evening 
hours. 

$$
Delgado