Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031144
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Nov 03 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Broad low pressure is expected to 
develop along an old frontal boundary that extends from 26N55W to 
the central Bahamas starting Tue night, near 26N between 65W and 
70W. A very tight pressure gradient between the low pressure and 
strong high pressure to its north is expected to induce near gale to 
gale-force northeast to east winds beginning Wed afternoon, roughly 
over the waters from 29N to 31N between 63W and 69W. Seas are 
expected to build to 10 to 16 ft (3 to 5 m) with these winds through 
Thu as the low pressure drifts east-northeastward. The low pressure 
could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week.
 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic from coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, and continues southwestward to 07N21W and to 
09N35W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N44W and to the 
coast of Guyana near 06.5N57.5W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm north of the trough and the ITCZ between 29W and 
40W and also between 45W-52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The interaction between strong high pressure over the eastern 
United States and relatively lower pressure related to a trough 
over the eastern Gulf is maintaining fresh to strong northeast to 
east winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft over the NE Gulf. Gentle to 
moderate northeast to east winds are elsewhere, except for
gentle to moderate southeast winds west of about 92W.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist over the Straits of
Florida and southeastern Gulf as a surface trough is nearby, and 
while a mid to upper level trough continues over that same 
general area of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east winds
over the NE Gulf will gradually shift northward and inland 
through this evening. A cold front is forecast to reach along the
Texas coast late this afternoon, and move out over the NW Gulf 
tonight through Wed, followed briefly by moderate to fresh 
northwest to north winds. The front will then weaken and dissipate
Wed night. Another cold front is expected to slowly move into the
NW Gulf waters Fri through Sat night, followed by moderate to 
fresh northeast winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper-level trough over the northwestern Caribbean is 
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms between 75W and 83W. 
High pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate 
trades along with seas of 3 to 6 ft seas across the central eastern 
Caribbean, except for fresh trades south of 15N between 68W and 72W. 
Overnight Ascat scatterometer data indicates gentle trades over the 
western portion of the basin. Seas are 1 to 3 ft with these trades.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas 
across the central and eastern Caribbean will continue today. The 
pressure gradient across the region will then relax Tue night 
through Sat as broad low pressure forms along the trough to the SW
of Bermuda and shifts east-northeastward throughout the week, 
leading to overall lighter winds and diminishing seas across the 
Caribbean basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
a recently issued Gale Warning for a portion of the western 
Atlantic.

A 1016 mb low is over the far northeast part of the discussion 
area near 31N36W. A cold front extends from the low to near 
29N38W, then transitions to a stationary front to 28N45W to 27N50W
and to 26N60W, where it transitions to a shear line to 27N70W and
to the central Bahamas near 25N78W. A tight pressure gradient 
between the stationary front/shear line and strong high pressure 
of 1030 mb centered north of Bermuda at 38N63W is sustaining 
widespread fresh to strong northeast to east winds north of the 
front and shear line. Seas with these winds are 8-11 ft Over the 
deep tropics, a trough is near 50W from 14N to 22N. Isolated 
showers and thunderstorms are east of the trough from 17N to 20N 
between 46W and 49W. In the far eastern Atlantic, a trough, 
remnants of a former frontal system, is analyzed from near 
29.5N32W to 27N24W, curving northeastward through the Canary 
Islands and to near 30N12.5W. No significant convection is 
occurring with this feature. Gentle to moderate trades along with 
seas of 5 to 7 ft are present are over the eastern Atlantic south 
of the above mentioned cold and stationary front, with the 
exception of mostly fresh trades south of 20N between 50W and the 
Lesser Antilles. Seas over these waters are 4 to 6 ft per latest 
altimeter satellite data, and observations from a few Sofar Spotter 
buoys over these same waters. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned fresh to strong 
northeast to east winds north of the stationary front and shear 
line will continue through today west of about 60W along with seas
peaking to around 11 ft. Broad low pressure is expected to 
develop along the frontal boundary southwest of Bermuda, roughly 
from 27N to 28N, tonight through Wed, and track slowly east- 
northeastward during the rest of the week. A broad zone of strong 
to gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking to 
around 16 ft, will develop north of the low pressure and expand 
eastward Wed through Fri, impacting the waters mainly north of 
about 27N. The gale- force winds will likely be north of 29N from 
Wed afternoon through Thu evening. A weakening cold front will 
slowly move across the waters between Florida and 75W Fri and Fri 
night, dissipating Sat and Sat night. 

$$
Aguirre