Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 032235
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jun 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between the 1033 
mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores and lower
pressures in northwest Africa result in strong to near gale- 
force northerly winds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zones. Gale- 
force winds are expected to persist through at least 04/0000 UTC 
with severe gusts. These winds will produce rough seas. Similar 
conditions will persist into the weekend. For more details, refer 
to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website 
https://wwmiws.wmo.int 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis analyzed along 31W, moving
W at around 15 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave
has diminished this evening. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W, south of 14N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 09N to 12N between 45W and 48W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 59W, 
south of 15N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 07N to 10N between 55W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and continues 
southwestward to 02N27W. The ITCZ extends from 01N33W to 
01N42W. No significant convection is associated with these
features at this time.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front has moved into the NE Gulf and extends from SW
Florida to near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within about 90 nm on either side of
the boundary. To the N of the front, fresh E winds and moderate
seas are present. A deep layer trough that extends southward from
the front through the central basin, to just offshore the NW
Yucatan, is generating scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection over the SE and south-central Gulf. Seas away from the
convection for areas S of the front are slight, with mainly gentle
NE winds. 
 
For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front should begin to 
stall later this evening. A trough of low pressure is also seen 
farther south across the central Gulf, which is expected to track 
north- northwestward through Fri. Interaction between this trough 
and the front is going to sustain fresh to strong ENE to SE winds 
with moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Gulf, 
north of 25N through Fri evening. In addition, a persistent upper-
level trough across the western Gulf will continue to enhance 
sporadic heavy showers and strong thunderstorms near the 
aforementioned trough and front through Fri night. Gusty winds 
with low visibility and frequent lightning will accompany the 
strong thunderstorms. After the low moves into Louisiana and the 
stationary front dissipates on Sat, the Atlantic Ridge should 
build westward across northern Florida into the Gulf, bringing 
moderate to locally fresh SE winds and moderate seas back to the 
entire Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic ridge is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E to 
SE winds and 4-7 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except 3-6 ft seas 
in the northwest Caribbean. Numerous moderate to strong convection
is active over the far southwest Caribbean along the monsoon 
trough. 

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge north of the area will 
weaken and shift east through Thu, allowing moderate to locally 
fresh trade winds and moderate seas to dominate much of the the 
Caribbean by Fri morning. The exception will be pulsing fresh to 
strong winds off Venezuela and in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at 
night through Fri. In the long term, the Atlantic ridge may 
rebuild by Sun, supporting fresh winds and building seas across 
the central and northwestern Caribbean by Sun night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in
the far northeast Atlantic.

A cold front extends from near 31N70W to South Florida, with a
stationary ahead of it stretching from 31N67W to just E of the
Bahamas. A zone of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection in association with these features is noted of 26N and
W of 70W, including in the vicinity of the Bahamas Florida
Straits. N of the cold front, fresh NE winds and rough seas are
present. To the east of these fronts, the basin is being dominated
by ridging centered around a 1033 mb high located at 34N32W,
leading to moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, as the aforementioned cold front 
stalls and dissipates near 67W this weekend, the Atlantic Ridge is
going to reform and support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 
slight to moderate seas for the western Atlantic into midweek next
week.

$$
Konarik