Hurricane Polo

535 
WTPZ32 KNHC 272354
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
500 PM MST Sun Sep 27 2026
 
...POLO HEADED TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE MONDAY MORNING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 114.1W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Santa Rosalia
* Mainland Mexico from Guaymas to Huatabampito
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to
Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas to Bahia Kino
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to
Bahia San Juan Bautista
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas to Bahia Kino
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 114.1 West. Polo is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion should continue 
through tonight followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. 
On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast 
of Baja California Sur on Monday, move across the peninsula Monday 
night and then approach northwestern mainland Mexico by early 
Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Polo is forecast to be at or near major 
hurricane strength when it reaches Baja California Sur on Monday, 
and it is expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall in 
mainland Mexico early Tuesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
along the west coast of Baja California Sur by late Monday
afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning in the southern
portion of the warning area by early Monday. These conditions are
expected to spread northward and eastward across Baja California Sur
on Monday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area and possible in the watch area in mainland 
northwestern Mexico early Tuesday with tropical storm conditions
expected to begin Monday night.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals
of 8 expected across portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of 
southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur 
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please 
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi